Why the Dodgers will beat the Rockies in the the NL West tiebreaker

Steve Gardner USA TODAY

Published 7:55 AM EDT Oct 1, 2018

To win their sixth consecutive National League West title, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Colorado Rockies in a tiebreaker game on Monday.

Dodgers went 12-7 against the Rockies this season, including a 6-3 mark at Dodger Stadium. Los Angeles swept three from Colorado Sept. 17-19 to build what seemed a sturdy 2 ½-game lead.

The winner will play host to the first two games of an NL Division Series against the Atlanta Braves, beginning Thursday. The loser travels to the Brewers-Cubs loser.

Along with the Brewers-Cubs tiebreaker, it's the first time in baseball history two divisions will be determined by one-game playoff.

Breaking down the one-game playoff for the National League West division title:

Probable pitchers

Colorado Rockies (RHP German Marquez – 14-10, 3.76 ERA) at Los Angeles Dodgers (RHP Walker Buehler – 7-5, 2.76 ERA), 4:09 p.m. ET.

What's at stake?

Both of these teams finished their 162-game schedules with identical 91-71 records and both will be part of the 2018 postseason. However, the winner of Monday's one-game playoff will claim the NL West title and will have the advantage of hosting the Atlanta Braves in the NL division series opener on Thursday.

The loser has to travel to face the loser of the NL Central tiebreaker in a winner-take-all wild-card game – with the survivor taking on the Chicago Cubs in their NLDS opener on Thursday.

The Dodgers have home-field advantage as they go for their sixth consecutive NL West crown. The Rockies have never won a division title in their 26-year history (although they did make it to the 2007 World Series as a wild card team).

27 outs

The Dodgers juggled their rotation to close out the regular season so they'd have rookie Walker Buehler on the mound for the tiebreaker game. Buehler has been perhaps the team's best starter over the final two months.

In 10 starts since the beginning of August, the 24-year-old right-hander is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA and an average of 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

For the Rockies, German Marquez has been equally dominant over that same span. In his 11 starts dating back to Aug. 3, the right-hander is 5-2 with a 2.14 ERA and a 12.0 K/9 rate.

In Marquez's last start against the Philadelphia Phillies, he tied a modern record by striking out the first eight batters he faced.

Since this still counts as a regular season game, both teams will have expanded September rosters at their disposal, so any hint of trouble from a starting pitcher could result in a quick hook from managers Dave Roberts of the Dodgers and Bud Black of the Rockies.

As for the starting lineups, the Dodgers will likely go with their standard lineup against right-handers, with lefty hitters Joc Pederson leading off in left field and Max Muncy playing first base.

The Rockies don't really worry about platooning hitters; they like to go with their standard lineup and will most likely have Tony Wolters at catcher. (Wolters has been behind the plate for 22 of Marquez's 32 starts.)

These teams feature the two best offenses in the National League. The Dodgers are first overall, averaging 4.93 runs per game – with the Rockies right behind at 4.80 runs per game.

Not surprisingly, they are first and third in home runs with L.A. on top (233), followed by Milwaukee (218) and Colorado (208).

Keep an eye on ...

Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig. The "Wild Horse" can be a difference-maker on the field, but sometimes the difference he makes isn't necessarily a positive one. His .496 slugging percentage in 123 games this season was the highest since his rookie year.

However, one statistical oddity Puig has shown over the past two seasons is a reverse split against lefty and righty pitchers. Normally, right-handed hitters such as Puig have more success against southpaws. But Puig is the opposite.

Against righties this season, he's posted a slash line of .301/.361/.563 with 18 homers and 47 RBI. (Against lefties, it's .212/.274/.371.)

Puig can change a game with his hitting, baserunning or his defense. But look for the Rockies to match up a left-handed reliever against him if he comes up in a crucial situation late in the game.

Close and late

The Rockies spend a huge amount of money last winter in an effort to upgrade their bullpen through free agency. However, with the possible exception of closer Wade Davis (43 saves, but with a 4.13 ERA), those big-money bullpen arms haven't panned out.

Bryan Shaw has an ERA of 5.93, lefty Jake McGee 6.62 and Mike Dunn is on the disabled list. As a result, the Rockies bullpen has a collective ERA of 4.64 – which ranks 26th in the majors.

If the game gets to the late innings and comes down to a battle of the bullpens, the Dodgers (3.71 ERA, .231 opponents' batting average) have the advantage.

Several former starters, including Kenta Maeda, Alex Wood and 2018 All-Star Ross Stripling have added depth by moving to the bullpen. Plus, the Dodgers added former closer Ryan Madson in a late-season trade.

And after a rocky April, closer Kenley Jansen is back to being one of the game's best closers. He's converted 38 of 42 save chances and has lowered his ERA to 2.80.

In the end

Can good pitching stop good hitting? It's certainly possible, at least for the first few innings. Look for Marquez and his strikeout prowess to have the advantage over the rookie Buehler, and the Rockies to take an early lead.

Leadoff hitter Charlie Blackmon hit for the cycle on Sunday in a rout of the Washington Nationals and he leads the NL with 119 runs scored. However, the Dodgers have superior depth they can use to their advantage as the game progresses.

Los Angeles can deploy the likes of David Freese, Brian Dozier, Chris Taylor or Matt Kemp off the bench. And the Rockies bullpen has been a weak spot for most of the season. With the incentive for winning being two extra days off, the Dodgers could even call on Jansen to pitch more than an inning to get the save.

Follow Gardner on Twitter @SteveAGardner

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