For the first time in MLB history, we get not one but two Game 163s (Games 163? Gamii 163ii?) on the same day. At Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers host the Rockies, while the Cubs entertain the Brewers at Wrigley Field.
Who will prevail in these two games? Step right up and get your predictions, complete with three keys for each game.
Rockies vs. Dodgers
1. In a battle of right-handed pitchers, the Dodgers hold a big edge.
When it comes to calculating ballparks' effect on run-scoring levels, we have a rough sense of how some of the more extreme parks affect offense. Given how stingy both fans and Hall of Fame voters are when it comes to giving credit to Rockies hitters, we know that the Coors Field effect makes us skeptical of Colorado teams' offense. But get this: The playoff-bound Rockies found their way to the postseason despite ranking dead last in the National League in park-adjusted offense against right-handed pitchers. Meanwhile, the Dodgers rank ... first.
Given that the starters for Monday's showdown are talented young righties German Marquez and Walker Buehler, that's a major advantage for the Dodgers.
2. In their quest to avoid the Wild Card Game, the Rockies have a wild card to play.
Ian Desmond hit an awful .219/.299/.388 against right-handed pitchers this season. D.J. LeMahieu batted just .254/.309/.380 against them. Hell, adjust NL home-run leader and MVP candidate Nolan Arenado's numbers against right-handers to account for Coors Field, and Arenado rated as 3 percent worse than league average against northpaws this year.
But David Dahl absolutely raked against righties this year, batting a robust .298/.355/.590 against them. He also heads into the postseason hotter than just about any other hitter on Earth not named Christian Yelich. Dahl smashed home runs in five straight games during the final week of the season, knocking in 12 runs over that span. Then after taking a rare 0-fer against the Nationals on Saturday, Dahl capped his gigantic week with a sixth home run, and three more runs batted in.
The 10th overall pick in the 2012 draft, Dahl has long been expected to emerge as the Rockies' next hitting star, only to be derailed by injuries. Now that he's finally healthy, he's absolutely raking. And as the most dangerous left-handed bat in the Rockies lineup right now (yes, he outperformed All-Star and Sunday cycle getter Charlie Blackmon this year on a per-at-bat basis against righties), he could be Colorado's best shot at an equalizer against the stingy rookie Buehler.
3. The Dodgers will make you work for it.
No team drew more walks this year than the Dodgers, with the gap between L.A. and the American League's most patient teams widening even further once you strip pitcher plate appearances out of the equation. As with many pitchers, Marquez excels when he's commanding the strike zone, and flops when he can't throw strikes. To wit, check out these 2018 splits:
- German Marquez when he walks 3 or more batters: 0-4, 7.01 ERA
- German Marquez when he walks 2 or fewer batters: 14-6, 3.04 ERA
This game may well turn on Dodgers hitters' ability to trot to first against Marquez. One ray of hope for Colorado: The rapidly improving and often dominant Marquez hasn't walked more than two batters in any of his past 12 starts.
Prediction: Dodgers 6, Rockies 4.
Brewers vs. Cubs
1. Don't expect any cheapies.
In addition to strong veteran starting pitchers, mashers at the corner-infield spots, and a totally 1,000% sober mascot, count solid defense among the constants in the Cubs' ascent over the past four seasons. This year was no different, with the Cubs defense saving 42 more runs than the average team, according to Baseball Info Solutions' Defensive Runs Saved.
Thing is, the Brewers scoff at those results. Led by Gold Glove favorite Lorenzo Cain, MVP front-runner Christian Yelich, and a passel of highly effective shifts, Milwaukee saved a jaw-dropping 112 runs more than the average team's defense, second in the majors behind only airtight Arizona. Errors and misplays probably won't be much of a factor in today's division-deciding contest.
2. Keep an eye on the benches.
Milwaukee added to an already deep collection of bats by acquiring Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop at the trade deadline. That means the Brewers now have more big bats than they do lineup spots for all those hitters. With lefty Jose Quintana drawing the start for the Cubs, look for lefty swingers Eric Thames and Curtis Granderson to be potential factors later in the game, when Chicago eventually goes to its right-handed options out of the pen. Meanwhile, Domingo Santana, the 30-homer breakout story last year who lost his starting job but still raked in pinch-hitting duty this season, batting a ludicrous .393/.452/.750 over 31 plate appearances in that role.
Don't sleep on the Cubs bench, though. Ian Happ is a multi-position Swiss army knife who's also a quick-strike power threat ... so quick, many of us might've missed the very first pitch of the 2018 season before it landed in the bleachers. David Bote is the Kris Bryant stand-in who delivered multiple magical moments this season as an out-of-nowhere power threat and instant folk hero. And if the Cubs want to try and steal a run, they can always turn to their tiny secret weapon: The blazingly fast jack-of-one-trade, Terrance Gore.
3 The Brewers' best relievers are tanned, rested, and ready.
On Sunday, as the Brewers fought to stay alive in the NL Central race, Milwaukee's talented play-by-play man Brian Anderson kept repeating a key point: Watch the bullpen. If the Crew could dispatch the undermanned Tigers without dipping into their nuclear weapons at the back of the pen, Milwaukee would be in great shape heading to Wrigley for Monday's tiebreaker. Mission accomplished. The Brewers blitzed Detroit for six runs in the seventh inning Sunday, breaking the game open and allowing Manager Craig Counsell to lesser talents to close out Milwaukee's 11-0 win.
If the Crew want inspiration for this game, they need look no further than the 2017 Yankees. When the Twins cranked New York ace Luis Severino for three runs in the first inning of last year's AL Wild Card Game, it looked like the Yanks might be in trouble. But instead of stubbornly sticking with Severino, then-manager Joe Girardi yanked his wobbly starter after just one-third of an inning, turning the game over to his team's terrifying collection of bullpen beasts. Those Yankees relievers allowed just one more run over the final 8 2/3 innings, en route to an 8-4 win.
The Brewers' big four of Jeremy Jeffress, Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, and Joakim Soria fully rested heading into Monday's pivotal matchup with the Cubs. Look for Counsell to go to the pen very early, a move that could swing the result in Milwaukee's favor.
Prediction: Brewers 3, Cubs 2
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Brewers vs. Cubs and Rockies vs. Dodgers: Predictions and three keys for each Game 163 tiebreaker"
Post a Comment