There is one question on every horse racing fan's mind as we near the 150th running of the Belmont Stakes.
Will Justify join an elite, immortal group that includes Sir Barton (1919), Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935), War Admiral (1937), Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946), Citation (1948), Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977), Affirmed (1978) and American Pharoah (2015) and become the 13th Triple Crown winner?
One and a half miles - the distance of the Belmont - stands in Justify's way, along with nine challengers.
Is the Belmont truly "The Test of the Champion?'' We will find out the answer Saturday at 6:46 p.m. NBC's coverage of the race will begin at 4 p.m.
More: 2018 Belmont Stakes: Post positions, odds, info
Who's going to win and who's going to fill out exacta, trifecta and superfecta payoffs? Here are some thoughts:
Steve Edelson, Asbury Park Press Columnist
In talking to D. Wayne Lukas on Tuesday, he makes it clear that Justify looks great in workouts, and his horse, Bravazo, had a great chance to beat him in the Preakness but couldn't.
But the Hall of Famer also thinks Bravazo is moving forward in this race based on what he's seen in training, and that the big, sweeping turns at Belmont are perfect for him.
Justify could draw off like Secretariat, but I don't think so. I think this is a tough race, and I like Bravazo to end the dream of a second Triple Crown winner in four years.
Bravazo-Tenfold-Justify.
More: 2018 Belmont Stakes: Who can beat Justify?
Ken Jordan, qualifier for 2017 Breeders'Cup Betting Challenge and 2018 Pegasus World Cup Challenge, first runner-up at the 16th annual Daily Racing Form/NTRA National Handicapping Championship
Most consider the Todd Pletcher-trained Noble Indy the rabbit for the more-fancied Pletcher runner Vino Rosso. I look at Noble Indy and can’t help seeing a Palace Malice repeat – that one pressed and faded in the 2013 Derby, retreated to Belmont for five weeks, and showed up with blinkers-off on Belmont Day as a 13-1 winner. ‘Indy will sit off Justify take the lead outside the quarter-pole and spoil the Triple Crown party. Use with Justify, Vino Rosso and Tenfold.
Steve Feitl, Asbury Park Press Digital Content Strategist
First of all, it’s not going to happen. I hate to go full Vader, but search your feelings; you know it to be true.
Justify is an amazing horse – one that has done everything asked of him.
But at some point Saturday, he’ll be asked for too much. Perhaps it will be breaking from the less-than-ideal 1 post … or the length of the Test of the Champion … or the accumulated wear-and-tear from two previous grinds this spring.
Or maybe American Pharoah will do a WWE-style run-in and defend his Triple Crown. Look, it would screw up my exotics, but hearing track announcer Larry Collmus exclaim, “Bah gawd, that’s American Pharoah’s music!” would be a heck of a consolation prize.
But if I don’t think the prohibitive favorite is going to win, who do I think will play spoiler? Preakness bridesmaid Bravazo from the 3 and a rested Hofburg out of the 4. Give me Vino Rosso from the 8 for supers as I think Justify will show.
Just not win.
So that’s Bravazo-Hofburg-Justify. Sad
More: 2018 Belmont Stakes: Triple Crown near misses, Will Justify join this list?
John Rowe, The Record
Is Justify up to winning a fifth straight race since Feb. 18, his debut after not racing as a two-year-old?
You have to wonder. He looked like a tired horse in holding on to with the Preakness. His stamina will be tested by the mile and half challenge.
1. Hofburg: Forget his rough trip in the Kentucky Derby. He'll benefit from the extra time off.
2. Justify: When Mike Smith asks for something extra in the stretch, Justify won't have enough left.
3. Vino Rosso: The Wood Memorial winner has the pedigree history needed to stay in contention.
More: Belmont Stakes: Justify draws No. 1 position in Triple Crown chase
More: 2018 Belmont Stakes: Horses to watch
Steven Falk, Asbury Park Press reporter
We are going to keep it simple again. The key is to try and get a price horse somewhere on this ticket.
1. Justify: He is the best and fastest horse. Not even drawing the No. 1 post - a post trainer Bob Baffert has always hated to draw - will deter his "run for glory'' to steal a line from Collmus' sensational call of American Pharoah's Belmont. .
He has worked lights out since the Preakness and is the controlling speed of a race that traditionally favors horses who either set the pace or are near the pace.
The possibility of rain will not hurt, either. He loves a sloppy track.
Baffert, who was American Pharoah's trainer, becomes the second trainer to have two Triple Crown winners. A remarkable accomplishment by a remarkable trainer.
2. Hofburg: The main danger to Justify.
He is a son of Tapit who has sired three of the last four Belmont winners, including the last two.
Had a troubled trip when seventh in the Derby, but flew by everyone on the gallop out.
3. Blended Citizen: The only horse in the race with a win over the track and has trained great over the track.
He will have to run significantly faster than he has before, but appears to be on the upswing and he will be a price.
4. Tenfold: Was third in the Preakness - beaten three-quarters of a length - with some trouble on the first turn.
He is a son of two-time Horse of the Year Curlin, which means he should like the distance. Will also be a price.
Bob Jordan, Asbury Park Press Sports Editor
Lightly raced horses do well in the Belmont Stakes, and Tenfold will be making his second start off a layoff, with his Preakness resulting in a strong third-place finish. Trainer Steve Asmussen won the 2016 Belmont with Creator. Hofburg is impossible to discount from exacta consideration. Vino Rossi goes from Kentucky Derby to Belmont; trainer Todd Pletcher has made a habit of forsaking the Preakness to keep his horses sharp for the final leg. Justify and Bravazo will be the only horses to make all three races; that’s a tough order.
More: 2018 Belmont Stakes: What would second Triple Crown mean for Baffert legacy?
Greg Giombarrese, Director of Communications for the Lakewood BlueClaws
Justify gets his chance at racing immortality late Saturday afternoon at Belmont Park.
He's clearly the most talented of the group lined up to face him and he's reportedly been training sensationally for the 12- furlong marathon.
But he's also going to be 1-5 on Saturday, We've seen enough crazy things happen in the Belmont that taking a small shot against him seems like a wise idea.
1. Vino Rosso: Is a grinder that wants as much distance as he can get - his dam is a half to Commissioner, another grinder who nearly upset this race at 28-1 four years ago.
Plus, he's by Curlin and his second dam is by Belmont winner Touch Gold.
You can throw out his non-effort in the Derby after he didn't care for the sloppy track.
His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won this race three times and has finished second four times, which helps the case, as does the expected price
Pletcher has kept him in New York for five weeks prepping for this, and he has a legitimate upset chance.
2. Justify: His Kentucky Derby, where he contested a fast pace, was better than his Preakness.
Don't forget, however, that he had a prolonged battle with Good Magic, last year's two-year old champion, in Baltimore as that race fell apart around him.
f he runs back to his Derby, he wins, but this is also the sixth race crammed into the last four months for a horse without any 2-year old foundation.
That, and the expected very short price, are enough reason to take a small shot against him, but we won't be surprised if he crushes the field.
3. Tenfold: Was closing late in the Preakness into a bunched finish at the wire.
He also was the first to attack Justify on the far turn. It was a pretty good effort for a lightly raced horse.
He's bred to get the distance too and should offer a fair price.
4. Hofburg: Has developed into something of a" wise-guy horse''.
Lightly raced, he was rallying well late in the Derby after trouble on the turn.
He's talented, but despite the trouble, he was aided by the fast Derby pace and won't offer any value at his morning line price of 9-2.
More: 2018 Belmont Stakes: What you need to know
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