Middle Tennessee coach Kermit Davis thinks this year’s team is better than last year’s team that knocked off Minnesota in the first round of the NCAAs and 2016’s team that pulled off perhaps the greatest bracket-buster of all-time in an upset of Michigan State as a No. 15 seed.
“I think we have a Sweet 16 team,” Davis told USA TODAY Sports by phone. “That’s the frustrating part, you know you have a team that’s built for the second-weekend, but you’ve got to get that opportunity.”
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The Blue Raiders, sadly, won’t get the opportunity to play Cinderella again this year, and were one of the first teams left out of the field of 68 as a notable snub on Selection Sunday. MTSU (24-7) lacked marquee wins, but had the most true road wins of any team in the country (12), presented a top-10 non-conference strength of schedule and held a 33 RPI.
“We did exactly what the selection committee wanted us to do,” Davis said. “We did everything we possibly could. Of course, we’d like to have more wins (the Blue Raiders lost one-possession games to Auburn, USC and Miami). At our level, it’s trying to be literally perfect. …It is a tough world we live in (as a mid-major conference member). It’s a grind for us because you cannot slip up one bit. You lose just one game to a C-USA team and then all the pundits put us out.”
It was likely the Blue Raiders’ early Conference USA tourney exit to Southern Mississippi, a gigantic résumé stain, that knocked them out of the NCAA field. Two losses to eventual tourney champ Marshall, a team that went down-to-the-wire against Xavier, didn’t help MTSU’s cause but were way less costly. Middle Tennessee had won 11 games in a row and was playing some of its best basketball before losing to Marshall in the regular-season finale on March 3 and Southern Miss. this past week.
“We just had a six-day period where we weren’t playing our best basketball offensively,” Davis said. “It just happened at the wrong time. You hope you can be judged based on an entire season instead of a six-day period by the committee, but unfortunately those two losses (were costly).”
Davis had his team practice on Friday, with the idea that the Blue Raiders would be playing Tuesday regardless — in the NCAAs for a play-in game in Dayton or the NIT as a No. 1 seed for a home game. Unfortunately, it turned out to be the latter.
Here’s a look at six other teams that got snubbed the selection committee this March.
Southern California
The biggest head-scratcher of Selection Sunday — outside of Syracuse making the field — is how the Trojans (23-11, 12-6) got snubbed, especially after reaching the Pac-12 tournament final before falling to Arizona. UCLA, which beat the Trojans twice, got in. USC had a 34 RPI. this pick is a testament to the committee paying no attention to conference standings, where USC finished second behind only Arizona and proved to be the second-best team in the league in the tournament in Vegas. The committee instead honored a team that struggled in the Pac 12, Arizona State, based on a pretty non-conference portfolio.
Saint Mary's
Coach Randy Bennett's team has been here before. And once again, a weak schedule is the culprit to a snub. Of the Gaels’ 28 wins, 24 of them came against teams outside the top 100. Just breathe that in. Saint Mary’s (28-5, 16-2) beat Gonzaga but its RPI in the 40s and strength of schedule in the 160s weren't enough to make up for the lack of marquee victories on this deceiving profile.
Marquette
The Golden Eagles (19-13, 9-9 Big East) have an RPI in the 50s and non-conference strength of schedule of 137, but the Big East Conference figured to be a saving grace, as it made their overall SoS top-25. There’s no good eye candy on the résumé as far as marquee victories go, but Marquette did have two victories over fellow bubble team Creighton, which squeaked into the field of 68. Did the wrong Big East team get in?
Louisville
The Cardinals (20-13, 9-9 ACC) likely had their season dashed on a buzzer-beating loss to Virginia on March 1. They managed to beat Florida State in the ACC tourney but there’s still not enough meat on this profile (just three top-50 wins). There are no bad losses and an RPI in the 30s to make a serious case, but Louisville just didn’t capitalize on the many Quadrant 1 opportunities it had in the ACC, and that’s something the committee will harp on.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish (20-14, 8-10) realistically needed one more marquee win to punch their ticket and came up short against Duke in the ACC tourney quarterfinals. Coach Mike Krzyzewski said after that game, “I hope they can get in because I think they can beat anybody.” Ah, but Coach K, that’s not the point. Notre Dame is a completely different team now that Bonzie Colson, a preseason All-American, is back from injury. But as lenient as the committee can be to injuries (ND lost seven in a row with Colson out), it’s still hard to rationalize Notre Dame’s résumé (RPI in the 60s, non-conference strength of schedule of 170, just two Q1 wins) beating out some of these other worthy at-large candidates.
Oklahoma State
The Cowboys (19-14, 8-10) swept Kansas in the regular season — a feat that looks all the more better following the Jayhawks’ impressive Big 12 tournament title and No. 1 NCAA seed status. OSU also has wins over West Virginia and Texas Tech. Ah, the luxuries of playing in the Big 12. But that served as a doubled edged sword that came in the form of a stretch that saw OSU lose seven of 10. That and the rest of the Cowboys’ portfolio is relatively bare. There are no bad losses on this résumé, but no other bubble team had an RPI in the 80s (flirting with the 90s) and a staggeringly ugly non-conference strength of schedule of 295. Baylor also didn't make it from the Big 12, but the Cowboys were ahead of the Bears on USA TODAY Sports' final bracketology.
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NCAA tourney language explainer
- Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 RPI teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 RPI; Away games vs. 1-75 RPI
- Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 RPI; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 RPI; Away games vs. 76-135 RPI
- Quadrant 3 wins, losses: Home games vs. 76-160 RPI; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 RPI; Away games vs. 136-240 RPI
- Quadrant 4 wins, losses: Home games vs. 161-plus RPI; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus RPI; Away games vs. 241-plus RPI
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Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
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