Michigan basketball got hot at the perfect time in yet another well-coached season from John Beilein. The Wolverines haven’t lost a game since Feb. 6, rolling past Michigan State and Purdue to win the Big Ten Tournament, then beating Houston, Florida State and Texas A&M in the NCAA Tournament to reach the Final Four.
Their season nearly came to an end in the Round of 32, but freshman Jordan Poole hit a buzzer-beating three to beat the Cougars. After avoiding the early upset, every other win has been convincing.
Michigan was the third-best team the Big Ten had to offer all season, with the Boilermakers and Spartans going 1-2. Their appearance in the Final Four may be surprising, but not to the same degree as No. 11 Loyola-Chicago, their upcoming opponent. Michigan is solid, but caught a couple breaks, including not having to play No. 2 UNC.
If Beilein has proven anything, it’s that he can get a great season out of a group of good players, even without having on one or two stars capable of carrying the load. Michigan might not have a first-round NBA Draft pick on its roster, but this team is deep and everyone plays a role. Here is what they need to do to defeat Loyola-Chicago to reach the national title game:
Moritz Wagner needs to be strong in the paint and stretch the floor.
Wagner is Michigan’s 6’11 German center who can crash the boards and shoot from deep. He’s probably the Wolverines’ best NBA prospect because of it.
Against Texas A&M in the Sweet 16, Wagner proved his value. Opposite traditional bigs accustomed to camping in the lanes, he dropped three three-pointers on as many attempts, and tallied 21 points. That’s a skill few college bigs have.
Against a true big like Loyola’s Cameron Krutwig, Wagner will need to stretch the floor. Dragging him outside his comfort zone in the paint will create clean looks for Wagner from distance, and also clear the driving lanes for his teammates.
Michigan is one of the best at avoiding turnovers. That needs to stay true.
The Wolverines are much more sound defensively than offensively, ranking No. 30 with the ball, according to KenPom.com, and No. 4 without it. A lack of offensive rebounding, means Michigan doesn’t get many second chances. Further complicating matters at they end of the floor, they didn’t shoot great from three-point range or the free-throw line this season.
But that doesn’t mean they make it easy for opposing defenses. Even if they shoot poorly, The Wolverines make sure the opposing defense still has to work. Michigan commits the sixth-fewest turnovers by steals in the nation, and third-fewest turnovers by percentage in general. Limiting turnovers — and the easy baskets for the opposition that tend to follow them — will be a key to their Final Four success.
Michigan needs to rebound well, and force tough 2-point looks
Michigan has the No. 4 defense in the country because it doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses. They hold opponents to the No. 43 two-point shooting percentage in the country. They also rank in the top-100 in defensive rebounding, free throw attempts allowed, and effective field goal percentage.
As previously mentioned, Michigan may lack high-profile stars, but it has no shortage of players who can make it really difficult for the stars on other teams. Charles Matthews is a 6’6 forward who is a top-25 rebounder on both sides of the ball. Zavier Simpson is a 6’0 guard who’s one of the best at poking the ball away in the nation. Duncan Robinson is 6’8 and lanky, and Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman is quick, 6’4, and is one of the best at defending without fouling.
As a unit, Michigan is as solid as they come.
How does Michigan matchup against Loyola-Chicago?
The Ramblers can’t be pleased with who escaped out of the West. Loyola-Chicago has won with capable shooters from deep, and by running the floor. Michigan can do those, but maybe better.
Wagner will be the biggest threat to tear down Loyola-Chicago’s big man, Krutwig. The Ramblers’ center won’t be able to score as easily on Wagner as he did previous opponents, and doesn’t project to defend a three-point shooting big well at all. Michigan’s dominance will depend on its own big’s jumper, and how often they can feed him the ball.
Michigan should be the favorite.
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