Vikings vs. Eagles: Top Fantasy Bets, Predictions for 2018 NFC Championship

Stefon Diggs will look to follow his dramatic last-second touchdown with another big performance in the NFC Championship Game.Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

Last year's NFC Championship Game contained seven combined touchdown passes from Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers. Nick Foles and Case Keenum are unlikely to follow suit Sunday.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings are each one victory away from making Super Bowl LII behind a quarterback who began 2017 on the bench. Although an overblown storyline among the onlookers who fail to comprehend that football is a team sport, the passers dwindle the matchup's excitement from a fantasy perspective.

Foles and Keenum are not entirely to blame for the anticipated low-scoring grind. Minnesota and Philadelphia concluded the season No. 1 and 4 in total defense, respectively. Even a healthy Carson Wentz would have entered the matchup with significant risk.

Nobody will match the huge results Ryan, Rodgers and Julio Jones achieved in last year's conference title bout, but let's project the top fantasy performers from Sunday's showdown.

Quarterback: Case Keenum, Vikings

Case Keenum is a safer fantasy option than Nick Foles.Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Only the Jacksonville Jaguars forfeited fewer passing yards per game than the Vikings, who conceded an NFL-low 13 passing touchdowns. They allowed 6.0 yards per pass attempt and are set to face Foles.

Despite tossing four touchdowns against the hapless New York Giants, Foles has averaged 5.9 yards per pass attempt in four starts. While Wentz's understudy played well in his team's divisional-round win (23-of-30, 246 passing yards and a rushing touchdown), the Atlanta Falcons ended the season No. 19 in Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) against the pass.

The Eagles ranked No. 7 in DVOA against the pass, but they also finished No. 17 in yards allowed. Although not a favorable matchup for Keenum, they are not as lethal an opponent as the Vikings.

Minnesota's breakout quarterback has also earned more trust. After accumulating 318 passing yards in an unforgettable victory over the New Orleans Saints, the journeyman tallied 3,775 yards through the air with 23 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions and a 67.2 completion percentage in 16 games.

Keenum is the easy choice by process of elimination. Just don't expect a huge game from either improbable championship game starter.

Running Back: Latavius Murray, Vikings

Latavius Murray has received a heavy goal-line workload for Minnesota.Adam Bettcher/Getty Images

The Eagles and Vikings respectively closed the season first and second in rushing defense. In a brutal matchup for all running backs, Latavius Murray gets the nod solely because of expected volume.

Minnesota's lead back has racked up over 20 touches in four straight games since submitting 20 yards in a Week 14 dud against the Carolina Panthers. Despite gaining an ineffective 50 yards on 19 handoffs—he also caught two passes—in the divisional-round win over New Orleans, the 28-year-old scored his ninth touchdown in 11 games.

Per Scout's John Holler, Murray discussed the significance of establishing a ground game early at Philadelphia.

"We want to start fast," Murray said. "That's something we preach on every week—starting fast. That's part of it, the plan that we have. But we know this game we're going to need a full game of efficient running."

On the other side, Foles will struggle to lead Philadelphia down the field. Even if the Eagles do create scoring opportunities, LeGarrette Blount will vulture goal-line looks from Jay Ajayi. A heavy workload makes Murray a safer choice to cross the sticks.

Wide Receiver: Stefon Diggs, Vikings

Diggs has scored a touchdown in each of his last four games.Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Alshon Jeffery, who spent his first five seasons with the Chicago Bears, will get reacquainted with Xavier Rhodes. As NFL Network's James Koh noted, Minnesota's All-Pro cornerback mostly got the better of their most recent encounters:

James Koh@JamesDKoh
Alshon Jeffery, who led all PHI WRs in receiving yds was shut ⬇️⬇️⬇️ by Xavier Rhodes in 2016. Just 4 rec on 10 targets for 62 yds and an INT... in TWO games. #RhodesClosed #NextGenStats
2018-1-19 18:01:00

Although a more palatable choice because of his lower cost, Nelson Agholor is also risky after amassing 70 receiving yards in his past three games. The nod once again must go to a Vikings player.

Adam Thielen has registered at least five catches in 14 of 17 games, so pick him for safety. Although Stefon Diggs needed the Minneapolis Miracle to pad his most recent stat line, he ended 2017 with 16 catches on 20 targets for 155 yards and three touchdowns in the final three games. He wields a higher ceiling.

Diggs, who opened the season with four touchdowns in three September games, delivered 76 yards on nine targets before his improbable 61-yard touchdown. With five or six receptions in each of his past five contests, the third-year pro has established enough of a floor to gamble on his big-play abilities.

Tight End: Zach Ertz, Eagles

Zach Ertz has a tough matchup against Minnesota, who allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends during the 2017 season.Abbie Parr/Getty Images

Zach Ertz collected the third-most receiving yards (824) among tight ends this year despite missing two games. He gives the conference championship slate another top-shelf choice behind Rob Gronkowski.

Yet this wasn't as easy a decision to put the Eagles on the board as one may think.

The Vikings surrendered 37.3 yards and an NFL-low 4.85 fantasy points per game to tight ends in Yahoo Sports leagues. A dependable stud for the opening half of 2017, Ertz has procured fewer than 25 yards in three of his seven games since returning from a hamstring injury.

Luckily for him, Kyle Rudolph is a touchdown-dependent option who hasn't found pay dirt in three games. He offered a combined 37 yards in those bouts, and the Eagles permitted five touchdowns to tight ends all season.

Ertz is especially the better choice in point-per-reception formats, but temper expectations in a brutal matchup. It's probably wise to pay up for Gronkowski.

Prediction: Vikings 20, Eagles 12

The Eagles will need to follow their divisional-round blueprint and win a defensive stalemate to make the Super Bowl.

Minnesota, however, is also well-equipped to win that type of battle.

Foles won't muster much offense against an elite Vikings defense. Ajayi and Blount won't break out any explosive runs versus a unit that restricted Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to a combined 68 yards on 21 carries.

Keenum's crew will offer subdued contributions to fantasy players on a low-scoring Sunday. By avoiding turnovers and playing lockdown defense, the Vikings earn a ticket back to Minneapolis to host the Super Bowl.

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