Jaguars vs. Patriots: Top Fantasy Bets, Predictions for 2018 AFC Championship

The New England Patriots should give Dion Lewis a heavy workload in the AFC Championship Game.Jim Rogash/Getty Images

Neither the New England Patriots nor the Jacksonville Jaguars should expect to light up the scoreboard in Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

Both teams advanced past the divisional round by piling on the points. While the Patriots pummeled the Tennessee Titans' helpless secondary, the Jaguars surprisingly won a 45-42 thriller over the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Despite those divisional-round results, Jacksonville's suffocating defense should avoid another meltdown. New England, conversely, should adjust the aerial approach from its most recent outing to a run-orientated attack regardless of quarterback Tom Brady's availability.

Fantasy fiends have limited choices in a two-game slate, so let's highlight a player from each position who should deliver an acceptable return on investment.

Quarterback: Blake Bortles, Jaguars

Along with having a much more favorable matchup, Blake Bortles will be significantly cheaper than Tom Brady.Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

If given the choice between Brady and Blake Bortles, even Jason Mendoza would have to pick the Patriots superstar. Yet playoff fantasy contests without a previously conducted draft run on a salary-cap format.

Brady will cost more than Bortles. While he's usually a far safer option who will likely outscore his opponent, the latter will offer more bang for a buyer's buck.

That's assuming the five-time Super Bowl champion plays. According to the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Patriots listed Brady as questionable because of a hand injury. Per Mark Maske of the Washington Post, the quarterback did not offer any insight on his status:

MarkMaske@MarkMaske
Tom Brady, speaking to media in Foxborough, declined to discuss hand injury, said he was "out there" for practice today and said when asked whether he'll play Sunday: "We'll see."
2018-1-19 18:54:19

After registering double-digit fantasy points in all but one regular-season game, Brady torched the Titans for 337 yards and three touchdowns. He threw a whopping 53 times in a 35-14 blowout. Since Tennessee ended the season ranked No. 4 against the run and No. 25 against the pass, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick mercilessly attacked his opponent's weakness.

The Jaguars ranked No. 21 against the run and No. 1 in stopping the pass. Consequently, expect Belichick to drastically alter his game plan, especially if Brady is out or playing below 100 percent.

Bortles, on the other hand, faces a Patriots defense that ended 2017 No. 30 against the pass because of a disastrous start. They allowed 254 passing yards and two touchdowns to Marcus Mariota, who had previously averaged 214.8 passing yards per game when including the Wild Card Round.

It behooves cost-effective fantasy gamers to close their eyes and shout "Bortles" with all their might.

Running Back: Dion Lewis, Patriots

Lewis has recorded 427 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games.Elsa/Getty Images

Reread the earlier part about Brady's injury and Belichick tailoring his play distribution to dissect his adversary's foibles. Now play Dion Lewis.

New England's revolving door of running backs shut in October, when Lewis took over as the AFC East champion's leading rusher. After recording 141 yards on 24 touches during the divisional round, he is averaging 17.3 touches and 92.7 yards over his past dozen contests.

OddsShark lists New England as a 7.5-point home favorite. Unlike in its most recent game, the AFC's top seed will run it down Jacksonville's throat if gaining an early edge. Despite a rough day against Ben Roethlisberger's Steelers, Brady and Belichick shouldn't want to test the league's premier secondary any more than is necessary.

Helping their case, the NFC Championship Game features the NFL's top two rushing defenses. Lewis is Sunday's top choice over Leonard Fournette, who has accrued just 3.8 yards per carry despite his 109-yard, three-touchdown outburst against Pittsburgh.

Wide Receiver: Marqise Lee, Jaguars

Marqise Lee received a team-high six targets in the divisional round.Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

Likely to be blanketed by Jalen Ramsey, Brandin Cooks is not worth the price of admission. Although Chris Hogan caught a four-yard touchdown against the Titans, that gives him five yards in two games separated by over a month.

Danny Amendola is an intriguing option after tallying 11 receptions for 112 yards against Tennessee, but it would be foolish to expect an encore from his best performance since Super Bowl LI. A Jaguars wideout could instead emerge as this game's best pick.

Identifying which one is the hard part.

Despite scoring 45 points last time out, Jacksonville's receivers combined to catch six passes for 93 yards. Keelan Cole led the way, with a 45-yard reception, but Marqise Lee received a team-high six targets.

While three catches for 28 yards is hardly an extraordinary line, Lee reeled in his first reception since Dec. 10. Before an ankle injury derailed his campaign, the 26-year-old compiled 96 targets over 14 games. He produced at least 45 yards in 10 of those bouts.

Far from a safe choice, Lee carries significant bounce-back potential against a subpar Patriots passing defense.

Tight End: Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

The Jacksonville Jaguars are more vulnerable to tight ends than wide receivers.Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

The Jaguars allowed the 11th-fewest points to tight ends during the regular season. While that does not make them an exploitable matchup for Rob Gronkowski, it's notable considering they yielded 1.5 fewer points per game to wide receivers than the second-best Baltimore Ravens.

That data does not include Vance McDonald's 10 catches from 16 targets for 112 yards in the divisional round. New England will not air it out enough to give any pass-catcher as many opportunities, but it should direct a large portion of those throws to the star tight end.

Besides, Marcedes Lewis has yet to notch five catches or 50 yards in a game since Week 3's three-touchdown anomaly in London. Anyone fading Gronkowski would have to pivot to Zach Ertz—Minnesota yielded the fewest fantasy points to tight end—or Kyle Rudolph in the NFC Championship Game.

When asked about how his team will defend Gronkowski, Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone said, per Yahoo Sports' Eric Adelson: "I'm not sure you can."

His honesty is refreshing. Pay a premium for the matchup nightmare, even it means forgoing Brady to preserve funds.

Prediction: Patriots 23, Jaguars 16

The AFC Championship Game won't host tremendous fantasy fireworks like the divisional round's unexpected Jaguars shootout. Both teams will look to control the ground game, giving Lewis another chance to enhance his rising-star status.

Brady plays but has a quiet game that will delight Patriots fans more than fantasy backers. Bortles produces enough yards to appease fantasy investors, but some mistakes cost the Jaguars an upset.

Touchdowns from Lewis and Gronkowski—and a few field goals from the reliable Stephen Gostkowski—carry the Patriots to another AFC title.

Note: All fantasy scoring data obtained from Yahoo Sports.

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