Sad as it is to say, the 2017 college football campaign in on its last legs and is moving on to the final phase: the postseason. While it’s a bummer that we only have a handful of games left in the year, the excitement is also about to pick up even more because it means the chase for the national title is down to four in the College Football Playoff.
With all that in mind, CFTalk decided to peer into our crystal ball and take a look at the postseason picture one final time — figuring out which teams wind up in certain bowl games prior to the official announcements on Sunday afternoon. Running through all the scenarios, here’s how the bowl picture could play out from the final four to the very first one on December 16th:
College Football Playoff
| Bowl | Teams | |
|---|---|---|
| Rose Bowl | No. 2 Oklahoma* | No. 3 Georgia* |
| Sugar Bowl | No. 1 Clemson* | No. 4 Alabama |
New Year’s Six
| Bowl | Teams | |
|---|---|---|
| Peach Bowl | UCF* | Notre Dame |
| Fiesta Bowl | USC* | Penn State |
| Orange Bowl | Miami | Wisconsin |
| Cotton Bowl | Ohio State* | Auburn |
2017 FBS Bowl Games
| Bowl | Teams | |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Bowl | Troy | North Texas |
| Cure Bowl | Marshall | Georgia State |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Arizona | Boise State |
| New Mexico Bowl | Colorado State | UTSA |
| Camellia Bowl | Akron | Arkansas State |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Temple | Florida Atlantic |
| Frisco Bowl | SMU | UCLA |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Western Kentucky | FIU |
| Bahamas Bowl | UAB+ | Ohio+ |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Wyoming | Northern Illinois |
| Birmingham Bowl | USF | West Virginia |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Army+ | Southern Miss |
| Dollar General Bowl | Toledo | App. State |
| Hawaii Bowl | Fresno State | Houston |
| Cactus Bowl | Kansas State | Oregon |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Central Michigan | Purdue |
| Heart of Dallas Bowl | Texas Tech | Utah |
| Independence Bowl | Louisiana Tech | Duke |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Boston College | Iowa |
| Texas Bowl | Texas | Missouri |
| Foster Farms Bowl | San Diego State | Washington State |
| Military Bowl | Virginia | Navy |
| Camping World Bowl | N.C. State | Oklahoma State |
| Alamo Bowl | TCU | Washington |
| Holiday Bowl | Michigan State | Stanford |
| Belk Bowl | Texas A&M | Wake Forest |
| Sun Bowl | Florida State | Arizona State |
| Music City Bowl | Kentucky | Northwestern |
| TaxSlayer Bowl | Louisville | Mississippi State |
| Liberty Bowl | Iowa State | Memphis |
| Arizona Bowl | Utah State | N.M. State |
| Outback Bowl | South Carolina | Michigan |
| Citrus Bowl | Virginia Tech | LSU |
+Accepted bowl invite
*Clinched New Year’s Six Bowl bid
Note: Buffalo, Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan also qualified for a bowl but were not selected
It’s been said that the College Football Playoff will not expand beyond its current four-team configuration anytime in the foreseeable future. This season could fracture that line of thinking to the point of breaking it.
Entering Week 14, the ACC and SEC championship games were considered playoff play-in games; No. 1 Clemson destroyed No. 7 Miami while No. 6 Georgia exacted revenge on No. 2 Auburn. No.3 Oklahoma blistered No. 11 TCU in the Big 12 championship game to guarantee another spot.
With those results, that left three of the four CFP spots claimed. The fourth, given those outcomes, seemingly came down to idle No. 5 Alabama and No. 8 Ohio State.
With 11-1 ‘Bama sitting this weekend out, 11-2 OSU took on No. 4 and previously unbeaten Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game and came away with a 27-21 win. Given how this weekend played out, and with apologies to USC, the final playoff berth will indeed come down to a Midwest blueblood and one from the South.
So, let’s go to the Tale of the Tape:
ALABAMA
— six wins over bowl-eligible teams
— two wins over CFP Top 25 teams: No. 17 LSU, No. 23 Mississippi State
— one win over FCS team
OHIO STATE
— seven wins over bowl-eligible teams
— three wins over CFP Top 25 teams: No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 9 Penn State, No. 16 Michigan State
— no games against FCS teams
LOSSES
— Alabama, one, 26-14 to No. 2 Auburn
— Ohio State, two, 31-16 at home to No. 3 Oklahoma and 55-24 on the road to 7-5 Iowa
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
— Alabama, none
— Ohio State, one
The reality is we’re in for a new reality, regardless of what happens Sunday afternoon.
Because it’s the only league in the FBS without a conference championship game, the Sun Belt will have co-champions in back-to-back seasons.
Heading into Week 14, Appalachian State, Arkansas State and Troy were all tied atop the conference standings at 6-1 in league play. Appalachian State was set to host Louisiana in the early game, with the other two first-place teams squaring off in the late game.
Appalachian State ensured quite quickly that there would be no solo champion this season as ASU took the Team Formerly Known as Louisiana-Lafayette to the woodshed in a 63-14 win. The Mountaineers pounded out the victory mainly on the ground, rushing for 357 yards and five touchdowns. Quarterback Taylor Lamb did toss four touchdown passes — and ran for one of the five — as part of the title-winning performance.
This marks ASU’s second SBC championship, shared or otherwise, since they joined the conference in 2014. They did, though, have 18 conference crowns as an FCS power.
In the later game, Troy outscored Arkansas State 25-15 in the second half to come away with a wild 32-25 win. The most remarkable aspect of the win? The Trojans were outgained 606-293 on offense.
Despite that, Troy claimed its sixth title in SBC history. It’s also its first since 2010, which marked the end of its run of five straight championships.
This marks the eighth time since 2001 that there has been SBC co-champions in football.
It’s been a bit, but Boise State is back on top of the Mountain West.
In a back-and-forth, low-scoring game that featured four lead changes, it was Boise that was on the favorable end of the last one as they topped No. 25 Fresno State 17-14 to claim the Mountain West Conference championship. The Bulldogs held a 14-10 halftime lead, but a scoreless second half was broken up by Ryan Wolpin‘s two-yard touchdown run with 4:42 left in the fourth quarter and proved to be the game-winner for the Broncos.
With the win, Boise State claimed its second win in an MWC championship game that was first played in 2013. Its first? A 28-14 win in 2014 over… Fresno State. It also marks the Broncos’ third title overall as an MWC member.
Fresno State was looking for its first title-game win since the inaugural one.
On a note unrelated to this game in particular but of particular interest nationally: Alabama, which was shut out of the SEC championship game and beat Fresno State earlier this season, needed for Fresno to beat Boise to help ‘Bama with its College Football Playoff résumé. With Ohio State’s win in the Big Ten championship game, and with Fresno State’s loss… it’s going to make for a very interesting Selection Sunday for the playoff selection committee.
It wasn’t 59-0, but it might be just enough to do the job. On the same stage that Ohio State used a Big Ten Championship win over Wisconsin to launch an 11th hour run to the College Football Playoff and an eventual national championship three years ago, No. 8 Ohio State hopes to do the same after taking down undefeated No. 4 Wisconsin 27-21 to win the Big Ten title.
J.T. Barrett famously did not play in the 2014 rout, but the fifth-year senior created his own legend by leading the Buckeyes to the win six days after undergoing arthroscopic surgery to lead the Buckeyes with 211 passing yards, 60 rushing yards and three total touchdowns.
The win pushes Ohio State to 11-2 on the season and gives the Buckeyes two wins over top-10 foes, bolstering the Buckeyes’ case as they look to edge 11-1 and fifth-ranked Alabama to reach their third Playoff in four seasons — all of which would come under controversial circumstances. The 2014 blowout of Wisconsin — with Hall of Fame Badgers coach Barry Alvarez serving on the selection committee — allowed Ohio State to pass both TCU and Baylor on Selection Sunday. A year ago, Ohio State became the first non-conference champion to reach the Playoff, beating out a 2-loss Penn State team that both won the head-to-head matchup over the Buckeyes and and claimed the Big Ten championship.
And now Ohio State looks to become both the first 2-loss team and the first team to suffer a blowout loss to reach the 4-team field.
Trailing 21-10 at the half, Wisconsin pulled within one score with a 46-yard Rafael Gaglianone field goal to open the third quarter, but Ohio State answered with a 27-yard Sean Nuernberger boot.
The score remained at 24-13 when Barrett tossed his second interception of the night, which Leon Jacobs grabbed and returned to the Wisconsin 48-yard line. Given the short field, Wisconsin’s offense charged to its first offensive touchdown of the night, a 1-yard Chris James plunge that literally ripped the Lucas Oil Stadium turf in two.
After a 15-minute delay in which grounds workers repaired the field, Alex Hornibrook found Troy Fumagalli for a 2-point conversion to pull the Badgers within 24-21 with 12:39 remaining.
Ohio State’s next possession consumed 7:19 of the clock over a 15-play march, extended by a 4th-and-1 conversion by Barrett, but stalled at the Wisconsin 3. A 20-yard Nuernberger field goal did not put Wisconsin away, but did force the Badgers to score a touchdown to win instead of needing a field goal to tie.
Wisconsin moved only 19 yards on the ensuing possession, as Paul Chryst bet on his defense by electing to punt on a 4th-and-3 from his own 38 with 3:20 to play and a full compliment of timeouts. That gamble paid off when Barrett threw behind a wide open J.K. Dobbins on 3rd-and-5, giving Wisconsin the ball back at its own 30 with 2:59 to go.
Wisconsin moved the ball as far as the Ohio State 43, but a called holding penalty and a missed pass interference flag pushed the Badgers back to a 1st-and-20 and the drive could not recover. Hornibrook fired three straight incomplete passes and was intercepted on fourth down by Damon Webb to allow Ohio State to seal the win.
A Wisconsin turnover started the scoring. The Badgers moved into the Ohio State red zone on their first possession, but Hornibrook’s lob near the end zone was intercepted by Denzel Ward at the 4-yard line. The Buckeyes needed only four plays to traverse the 96 yards ahead of them, the last 84 coming on a Barrett pass to Terry McLaurin to open the scoring.
Barrett then gifted Wisconsin a touchdown with a 9-yard pick-six to Wisconsin’s Andrew Van Ginkel. He quickly erased that score, though, completing a 4-play, 75-yard drive with a 57-yard snatch-and-dash to Parris Campbell, giving Ohio State a 14-7 lead at the end of the first quarter.
After three straight three-and-outs, Ohio State again put together another blitzkrieg drive, this time moving 82 yards in three plays, 77 of which came on a Dobbins run. Barrett pushed the lead to 21-7 with a 1-yard plunge one play later.
Needing a score to stay in the game, Wisconsin drove to the Ohio State 37, but Chryst elected to punt on a 4th-and-3 instead of going for it or kicking a 54-yard field goal. The decision immediately worked out, though, when Van Ginkel forced a Mike Weber fumble at the Ohio State 11, leading to a 28-yard Gaglianone with 3:42 left in the half.
Nuernberger’s 43-yard field goal on the final play of the half was blocked.
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