Your US Open Sunday contenders, ranked

So that happened.

Mike Davis turned the USGA’s course setup at Shinnecock from “difficult” to “2004 Ford Focus burning on the side of the freeway” Saturday afternoon. Shinny’s undulating greens were rolling quicker than the weekday rounds, and winds kicking up to 20-some miles per hour created some impressionist, fun-house mirrors version of a major championship. Dustin Johnson shot 77, evaporating his lead as the rest of the leaderboard collapsed around him. Phil supplied the Industrial Hot Take Complex enough fuel to run for weeks. Zach Johnson, well, said Zach Johnson things. In other words, it’s a U.S. Open.

The USGA is everyone’s favorite punching bag in golf,

The remnants of such carnage? We’ve got a jam-packed leaderboard that’s nearly impossible to decipher. After Davis’ overnight mea culpa about the course set up, you can reasonably expect to not quite be as insane on Sunday afternoon. The water was out overnight and this morning, and with sustained wins expected in the afternoon in the 20+ range, the USGA will definitely be best served, say, avoiding accidentally double-cutting & rolling the 7th green to start the morning. (Shoutout to the 2004 Shinnecock set-up disaster.)

Agronomy aside, it’s hard to project a target number for a winner on Sunday. If trends hold a bit, and with only six players better than 6-over-par, could we looking at a winner at 4-over, or 5, or 6? That seems reasonable, and brings maybe anyone at 10-over or better into play. That said, all it takes is one sub-70 round from one of the quartet at 3-over-par to suck most of the wind out of Sunday.

Here’s a earnest take at parsing the noise and lining out a few names you should keep an eye on throughout Sunday — from who can actually win to who’s probably just noise on the leaderboard.

11. Justin Thomas

At five back, JT’s still in the picture but a bit of a fringe contender. Why include him here? While weekly form may be fleeting, class is permanent — Thomas is still the 2nd ranked player in the world and one of the five most talented in the sport when he’s got everything cooking. Two? He’s a major winner with a proven ability to take it looooooooow. If you’re looking for someone that can throw down an outlier 65 or 66, here’s a nice option.

10. Kiradech Apihibarnrat

Please respect our Yeezy-wearing, smoke-blowing largeson. The Barnrat’s quietly had a really nice 2018, picking up a couple of worldwide wins and finishing top-5 in three big non-major events (Euro PGA, WGC-Mexico, WGC-Match Play). But he’s never really been in contention late on a major Sunday like this. I take no pleasure in writing these words, but it’s hard to see Shinnecock being the breakthrough spot.

9. Patrick Reed

[screaming LA-LA-LA-LA and ignoring the 2018 Masters] No!

8. Tyrell Hatton/Branden Grace

Two players who’d be completely deserving to win a major, both of which you’d go “okay” and move right on with your Sunday. Hatton’s lingered for awhile around majors, Grace of course threw down his 62 at last year’s Open Championship on Sunday. One of these two probably pull to the top of the leaderboard at some point on Sunday. Take your pick of who.

7. Jim Furyk

Jim! We’ve dusted off everyone’s favorite weird-swinging yinzer and pulled him out of the attic for his annual weekend on the leaderboard at the US Open. His T-2 finish at Oakmont in 2016 wasn’t long ago, and if there’s anyone on this leaderboard who knows how to negotiate a weird Mike Davis set up — it’s Jim.

6. Daniel Berger

At just 25, Berger’s another out of the Spieth/Thomas-type group of young American players that aren’t afraid of much and brought new blood to the US national team. He’ll probably a get a major one day! But, man, it’s hard to picture it coming today. Berger’s 66 came on almost a completely different golf course than the leaders faced Saturday afternoon, and the atmosphere early at a major is almost like a different event than what it is late. Keep an eye on the opening few holes. If Berger holds up, he’ll be around for the finish. If not, look out.

5. Tony Finau

Pretty much everything said above also applies here, but I’m placing him one slot ahead because I’m a card-carrying member of FINAU HIVE. Healthy skepticism of the two dudes who fired the early-morning 66s and have three PGA Tour wins at two venues total between them is warranted. One will linger, one will shoot 80. Probably. I don’t know. It’s all a guess.

4. Henrik Stenson

As steady as ever, won’t wilt in the heat, may swear afterward on-air.

3. Dustin Johnson

Gonna pour some cold water on things for a moment and workshop the idea that maaaaaaybe our guy has some mental cobwebs on weekends at majors. There’s always been this wink-and-nod characterization of DJ as dumb, or stupid, or whatever — because he’s not particularly verbose in press conferences. That often manifests in kind profiles as descriptors that he “doesn’t overthink things” or “has a short memory.” It’s kinda unfair and backhanded, but whatever. He’s the top golfer on the planet at the moment, lives a great life, has a ton of money, almost certainly does not care what some golf writer’s goofing about on Twitter.

Point being, what if, what if, the narrative that promulgates from that mindset isn’t at all accurate? Start thinking through the majors where DJ’s been unable to close on the weekend. 2010 US Open, 2010 PGA. 2015 US Open. Flag this for future discussion, and we’ll come back to it after Sunday. This is probably a bad take, but I get one per piece I write. Whatever. Moving along.

U.S. Open - Final Round — Are we thinking back to back?

2. Brooks Koepka

It’s easy to go “Hey, this is the defending US Open champ!” and put some words together about how Brooks has been through the crucible of a USGA championship Sunday before. One problem: Erin Hills, um, is not Shinnecock. Last year’s edition of the tournament was a bit of an outlier — long, open, wind, and wet. Not quite the grind that Sunday at Shinny should be. Still. Back to back very much seems in play.

Your favorite: Justin Rose.

Hey, did you realize Justin Rose can reach world number one with a win today? You didn’t, and that’s alright! The 37-year-old Englishman’s put together a hell of a season, winning four times since last year’s Tour Championship worldwide and rising to a career best position in the OWGR.

There’s perhaps no one in the sport as underrated and under-appreciated as Rose. He’s a major winner and gold-medal winner, likely one more major title away from a Hall of Fame spot, and still has a decade of golf to play in his career. On this Sunday, he’s the type of reliable, well-rounded player that can weather the mental and physical drudgery of closing a U.S. Open at Shinnecock.

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