After the fracas that ended Game 1 of the NBA Finals, narratives spun out of control. What if George Hill made his free throw? What if Draymond Green's lane violation had been called? What if the refs didn't overturn LeBron James' charge on Kevin Durant? What if JR Smith hadn't...
The list goes on, and it's fun to try to identify which play altered the history books forever. In reality, there are hundreds of bang-bang moments within the course of an NBA game that add up to influence the result.
Ultimately, fans are frustrated because the Cavs weren't perfect. Unfair as it may be, you have to be perfect to beat the Warriors.
In Game 1, even more than Smith's blunder, that imperfection was the Cavaliers' three-point shooting. As a team, Cleveland converted the sixth-highest three-point percentage during the regular season (37.2 percent). It must have caught the Rockets' cold because in Game 1, non-LeBron Cavs went 7-of-30 from three-point land (and one of those was a Smith make in OT garbage time) for a miserable 23.3 percent from deep.
With as many chances as they had to win, it felt like the Cavaliers needed to come away with a victory. Leaving those extra points on the table hurts, and if they had only made their playoff average of 33.5 percent, they would have hit three more three-pointers and may have avoided overtime and won that game.
But, this is a make-or-miss league. Sure, the Cavs got some offensive-rebound putbacks, but they also allowed a handful of run-outs. The calculus is never clean when unfurling a fluid, living thing. Ultimately, their shots need to fall. So rather than dwell on how the ball bounced, it's more interesting to investigate whether the Cavaliers can expect an ascension toward their average or if the stifling Warriors defense is built to once again stave off the Cavs.
Cavs Laying Bricks
Similar to the Rockets, the Cavs offense revolves around one massive star. With shooters spacing the floor around him, James can either go one-on-one or dish it to a sniper if the help comes.
Defenses really have two options: Throw the armory at James and try to slow him down (as much as one can), or let James get his and shut down the shooters.
The Cavs took 20 "wide-open" three-pointers (at least six feet of space between the shooter and the nearest defender) and made just six of them. (By the way, two of those three makes came from James). That's 30 percent for all you mathematicians, and that won't cut it against the Warriors.
Of course, there were a handful of unlucky bounces, but guys like Jordan Clarkson, for example, didn't appear ready for the big stage. He shot 0-of-3 from long range and didn't look like he wanted to be there.
Smith made a few shots more difficult for himself than he needed to, and Jeff Green couldn't keep up what he did in Game 7 of the conference finals against Boston. Green went 1-of-6 from three in Game 1 of the Finals even though LeBron created open looks out of thin air by reading the Warriors' switches three moves ahead.
Kevin Love was 1-of-8 from the perimeter, and his first and only make came with two minutes to go in the fourth quarter.
Kyle Korver only got up three deep attempts and will need more minutes in Game 2. He's too much of a threat, and the Cavs need to match offensive firepower in this series if they want to give themselves a chance. Their defense stinks besides.
The Cavs got some good looks purely off of the attention that LeBron attracts. With Golden State switching as frequently as it does, it's hard not to want to collapse on LeBron, but his superior game-reading and passing skills should spurn them in the future, should the Warrors continue to make these mistakes.
The Cavs also employed some creative design to offset their use of a traditional big man. In this case, Tristan Thompson roams the baseline on LeBron's drives, so when the first layer of help defense comes from the paint to stop the ball, the weak-side corner defender has to choose between Thompson under the basket or a corner three-pointer. Clever work here by the Cavs to open up the floor.
If Thompson can get on the other side of the defender to set a hammer screen like he did on the last play, even better.
These are the kinds of shots the Cavs can continue to prey on and ones they had better make if they want to keep this series close.
Warriors' Defensive Game Plan
The Warriors did allow a shocking number of open three-pointers, but there's a good chance it was in their game plan. From the start of the game, they tried to limit James and let the role players beat them. Since James was getting whatever he wanted and no one else could buy a bucket, they threw more and more defenders his way to slow him down—an easy call with the surrounding shooters as cold as they were.
Eight of those wide-open looks came in the first half, suggesting Golden State started to gravitate toward James and leave Cavs shooters to toss up bricks.
Twelve more of those three-pointers came with a defender four to six feet away (they made two). Nine of those 12 came in the first half, further supporting this theory.
In the Western Conference Finals, the Warriors allowed an average of 13 wide-open three-pointers per game to the Rockets. Houston took 38.1 shots per game from beyond the arc that series, which means 34.1 percent of the Rockets' three-pointers were wide-open, compared to 54 percent of the Cavs'. In other words, the Warriors were far more reluctant to leave the Rockets shooters than the Cavs.
So after the game when Steve Kerr said, "We got lucky," he wasn't lying. The Warriors defense was lackluster. They can't expect the Cavs to miss as many open three-pointers in Game 2, so they have to be better about cutting them out. At times, rather than sticking to the game plan, it felt like all 10 eyes on defense were watching LeBron as closely as the fans around the world, marveling at what he was accomplishing. Hard to blame them.
Golden State lucked out, though, that Draymond Green was there to clean up the mess. He's been on another level defensively these playoffs, but Game 1 was beyond even that.
Watching him in these clips, you can see he is reading the plays before they materialize. He stunts on James' drives to force a kick-out and still recovers in time to contest the shot.
Other times, he just does the work for his teammates because he sees what's happening and can get to the shooter more quickly.
Green's defense probably forced an extra miss or three, and that mattered in this game. But the Warriors created some of their own luck by calling the Cavs' bluff and testing their supporting cast to see if they could beat them.
As much as the Cavs should be hopeful about their shots falling in Game 2, the Warriors need to be worried about their defensive execution, because the way they defended in Game 1 doesn't earn you a championship.
Stats via NBA.com. Follow Will on Twitter @wontgottlieb.
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