2018 Kentucky Derby: Early Saturday Odds, and Last-Minute Betting Tips

Justifying His Run for the Roses: Trained by Bob Baffert, Derby favorite Justify loosens up yesterday at Churchill Downs.  (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Across Louisville and the Bluegrass country, the money's talking, the hat show is walking, and 2018 Kentucky Derby is under way. Justify is still the big man to beat this afternoon, but the money has come down on some interesting former long shots since the morning line was issued, a result of the show-and-tell maintenance gallops out at Churchill in the last days, that have afforded closer study of, in particular, My Boy Jack, who came down from 30-1 to 5-1, landing right in the laps of the favorites, on a par with Mendelssohn. We'll see what happens as the expected $30-million-plus Churchill pool really gets fired up and moves onto the horses in the coming hours. But in a word, the money is saying that all the signature, on-track communication of these Thoroughbreds, how they react to their tasks and their riders, whether they move with ease or seem tight, whether their tails are flicking and fire is coming out of their nostrils, all of that matters much right now.

In addition to the athletes, the weather gods are chomping at the bit to have something to say about the Derby's 144th running. This morning's Louisville forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain starting at 10 a.m., increasing to 60% by 1 p.m., with showers more or less iffy all afternoon. The chance for rain tails off near the Derby's post time, but the track, can, still, be made somewhat wet. Note to players: If it is wet, it will favor speed, as it did last year with Always Dreaming's win.

You Can Almost Hear the Crowd: Audible galloping yesterday at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

More on these and other questions as we call in the Bluegrass Wise Man ™ to walk us through today's maze of plays, but before that, the early Saturday odds. We'll update the odds regularly in this space until post time.

(Post Position, Horse, Track Odds)

1.Firenze Fire, 66-1

2 Free Drop Billy, 42-1

3 Promises Fulfilled, 42-1

4 Flameaway, 53-1

5 Audible, 8-1

6 Good Magic, 8-1

7 Justify 7-2

8 Lone Sailor, 28-1

9 Hofburg, 23-1

10 My Boy Jack, 5-1

11 Bolt D'Oro, 9-1

12 Enticed, 52-1

13 Bravazo, 69-1

14 Mendelssohn, 5-1

15 Instilled Regard, 99-1

16 Magnum Moon, 13-1

17 Solomini, 68-1

18 Vino Rosso, 18-1

19 Noble Indy, 49-1

20 Combatant, 78-1

Out For a Spin:  Bolt d'Oro at his morning workout yesterday at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Post time is bearing down on us. Give us some plays.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Go for the trifecta. Here are some numbers for you. Last year the two-dollar trifecta paid $16,594. It was a $31-million dollar pool, which will be the same or greater today, but the reason the bet paid well was, first, it was raining, and Always Dreaming came in, with two bombs, at 33-1 and 40-1, right behind him. The 2017 superfecta, the top four, paid $75 grand. With the favorite on top, right? So, let's say you play Justify on top, and the whole field underneath him. That bet will cost you three hundred bucks and then some, but it will be a fun one. Especially if it's a wet track. You could also put some others up top, like Mendelssohn, and play it across who you think might be good on a fast track.

Good Magic, Excellently Ripped and Running: Trained by Chad Brown, Good Magic takes a maintenance gallop at Churchill Downs on May 3rd. (Photo by Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images)

This is a good moment to bear down on a some of today's possible bombs who you've seen this week at Churchill.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: The horse that I think could do well is Good Magic. Nobody was talking much about him, but his odds came down as the week rolled on, so we will see, the chatter on him may be starting now. But that's not the main point. He beat Bolt D'Oro, breaking his maiden in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Chad Brown brought him to Keeneland, and he won the Bluegrass, which discounts him a little because we haven't had a lotta Derby winners come out of that prep. But Chad is a master horseman. He's known to be more of a turf trainer than dirt, yet his stats on dirt are every bit as good as on turf. Good Magic's breaking from the six, so he's gonna be fine. He looked fantastic, his hind end, his motor if you will, he's just got a big engine back there that will help him get over some ground. He's well mannered, he knows his job and has some length to him.  Has one of the best jockeys going in Jose Ortiz. He could well be on the board.

Anybody else stand out this week during workouts?

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: My Boy Jack caught my eye. He has the same connections as Exaggerator, the Desormeauxs. He's a closer breaking from the 10 hole, so it could set up for him breaking clean. Main point about him is that he's run at three different tracks already this year, and doesn't appear to be bothered by any of them, so he's a warrior. His sire is emerging as a winning sire. He could well hit the board and you're gonna get a price. He has come way down this morning as well, to 5-1, so I'm not so sure he can be called a bomb any more. He's working his way into the first flight of the faves.

Let's say you're building a superfecta list this year.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Another like My Boy Jack is Lone Sailor, who could still bring a price, which is to say, although more people are looking at him, he's still at 28-1. Lone Sailor would make a good play in a superfecta along with My Boy Jack to round it out. On appearance, out at Churchill this week, he looked fantastic.

Moving on to some of the original favorites, how did Mendelssohn look this week?

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: You know, he was just busting to get out and run, nickering, yelling, full of beans, the loudest thing out there under his rider. We'll see what the money says a little later, but he feels right at 5-1, and I'd toss him in an exacta. My fondness for My Boy Jack earlier in the week might outweigh that as the day wears on, but Mendelssohn has proved more than My Boy Jack has, and can handle the stuff, as he proved at Del Mar, and then in Dubai. This isn't (trainer) Aidan O'Brien's first rodeo. He's done it before. Mendelssohn will matter.

Taking a Turn, Straining to Break Free: Justify pulling hard against his exercise rider on May 3rd.  (Photo by Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images)

The windows will be open at the track in a few hours, which means it's the perfect time for you to terrify us with some more of what you saw in Justify this week.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: When he walks by you, you know it.  He is the man of this race.  If you look at that shot of his May 3rd gallop, it tells us a lot.  His mouth is open, which means, he's pulling hard against the bit.  Look at where his rider's feet are -- we call that having his feet 'on the dash.'  The reason for that is that he needs a brace to pull as hard as he is pulling against the horse. That exercise rider's back is aching and stinging him right now because he's pulling back against Justify's massive neck.  Look at Justify's ears.  One of them is kinda half cocked back to his rider, and that's saying, hey, can you loosen up on these reins a little bit so that I can run?  In other words, he's ready.  If you add that to Baffert's history, he's won four Derbies, six Preaknesses, two Belmonts and a Triple Crown.  He says Justify is the best-looking colt he's ever bought here.  I'd say that oughta do for creating major fear.

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Justifying His Run for the Roses: Trained by Bob Baffert, Derby favorite Justify loosens up yesterday at Churchill Downs.  (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Across Louisville and the Bluegrass country, the money's talking, the hat show is walking, and 2018 Kentucky Derby is under way. Justify is still the big man to beat this afternoon, but the money has come down on some interesting former long shots since the morning line was issued, a result of the show-and-tell maintenance gallops out at Churchill in the last days, that have afforded closer study of, in particular, My Boy Jack, who came down from 30-1 to 5-1, landing right in the laps of the favorites, on a par with Mendelssohn. We'll see what happens as the expected $30-million-plus Churchill pool really gets fired up and moves onto the horses in the coming hours. But in a word, the money is saying that all the signature, on-track communication of these Thoroughbreds, how they react to their tasks and their riders, whether they move with ease or seem tight, whether their tails are flicking and fire is coming out of their nostrils, all of that matters much right now.

In addition to the athletes, the weather gods are chomping at the bit to have something to say about the Derby's 144th running. This morning's Louisville forecast calls for a 50% chance of rain starting at 10 a.m., increasing to 60% by 1 p.m., with showers more or less iffy all afternoon. The chance for rain tails off near the Derby's post time, but the track, can, still, be made somewhat wet. Note to players: If it is wet, it will favor speed, as it did last year with Always Dreaming's win.

You Can Almost Hear the Crowd: Audible galloping yesterday at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

More on these and other questions as we call in the Bluegrass Wise Man ™ to walk us through today's maze of plays, but before that, the early Saturday odds. We'll update the odds regularly in this space until post time.

(Post Position, Horse, Track Odds)

1.Firenze Fire, 66-1

2 Free Drop Billy, 42-1

3 Promises Fulfilled, 42-1

4 Flameaway, 53-1

5 Audible, 8-1

6 Good Magic, 8-1

7 Justify 7-2

8 Lone Sailor, 28-1

9 Hofburg, 23-1

10 My Boy Jack, 5-1

11 Bolt D'Oro, 9-1

12 Enticed, 52-1

13 Bravazo, 69-1

14 Mendelssohn, 5-1

15 Instilled Regard, 99-1

16 Magnum Moon, 13-1

17 Solomini, 68-1

18 Vino Rosso, 18-1

19 Noble Indy, 49-1

20 Combatant, 78-1

Out For a Spin:  Bolt d'Oro at his morning workout yesterday at Churchill Downs. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Post time is bearing down on us. Give us some plays.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Go for the trifecta. Here are some numbers for you. Last year the two-dollar trifecta paid $16,594. It was a $31-million dollar pool, which will be the same or greater today, but the reason the bet paid well was, first, it was raining, and Always Dreaming came in, with two bombs, at 33-1 and 40-1, right behind him. The 2017 superfecta, the top four, paid $75 grand. With the favorite on top, right? So, let's say you play Justify on top, and the whole field underneath him. That bet will cost you three hundred bucks and then some, but it will be a fun one. Especially if it's a wet track. You could also put some others up top, like Mendelssohn, and play it across who you think might be good on a fast track.

Good Magic, Excellently Ripped and Running: Trained by Chad Brown, Good Magic takes a maintenance gallop at Churchill Downs on May 3rd. (Photo by Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images)

This is a good moment to bear down on a some of today's possible bombs who you've seen this week at Churchill.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: The horse that I think could do well is Good Magic. Nobody was talking much about him, but his odds came down as the week rolled on, so we will see, the chatter on him may be starting now. But that's not the main point. He beat Bolt D'Oro, breaking his maiden in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile. Chad Brown brought him to Keeneland, and he won the Bluegrass, which discounts him a little because we haven't had a lotta Derby winners come out of that prep. But Chad is a master horseman. He's known to be more of a turf trainer than dirt, yet his stats on dirt are every bit as good as on turf. Good Magic's breaking from the six, so he's gonna be fine. He looked fantastic, his hind end, his motor if you will, he's just got a big engine back there that will help him get over some ground. He's well mannered, he knows his job and has some length to him.  Has one of the best jockeys going in Jose Ortiz. He could well be on the board.

Anybody else stand out this week during workouts?

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: My Boy Jack caught my eye. He has the same connections as Exaggerator, the Desormeauxs. He's a closer breaking from the 10 hole, so it could set up for him breaking clean. Main point about him is that he's run at three different tracks already this year, and doesn't appear to be bothered by any of them, so he's a warrior. His sire is emerging as a winning sire. He could well hit the board and you're gonna get a price. He has come way down this morning as well, to 5-1, so I'm not so sure he can be called a bomb any more. He's working his way into the first flight of the faves.

Let's say you're building a superfecta list this year.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: Another like My Boy Jack is Lone Sailor, who could still bring a price, which is to say, although more people are looking at him, he's still at 28-1. Lone Sailor would make a good play in a superfecta along with My Boy Jack to round it out. On appearance, out at Churchill this week, he looked fantastic.

Moving on to some of the original favorites, how did Mendelssohn look this week?

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: You know, he was just busting to get out and run, nickering, yelling, full of beans, the loudest thing out there under his rider. We'll see what the money says a little later, but he feels right at 5-1, and I'd toss him in an exacta. My fondness for My Boy Jack earlier in the week might outweigh that as the day wears on, but Mendelssohn has proved more than My Boy Jack has, and can handle the stuff, as he proved at Del Mar, and then in Dubai. This isn't (trainer) Aidan O'Brien's first rodeo. He's done it before. Mendelssohn will matter.

Taking a Turn, Straining to Break Free: Justify pulling hard against his exercise rider on May 3rd.  (Photo by Alex Evers/Eclipse Sportswire/Getty Images)

The windows will be open at the track in a few hours, which means it's the perfect time for you to terrify us with some more of what you saw in Justify this week.

Bluegrass Wise Man ™: When he walks by you, you know it.  He is the man of this race.  If you look at that shot of his May 3rd gallop, it tells us a lot.  His mouth is open, which means, he's pulling hard against the bit.  Look at where his rider's feet are -- we call that having his feet 'on the dash.'  The reason for that is that he needs a brace to pull as hard as he is pulling against the horse. That exercise rider's back is aching and stinging him right now because he's pulling back against Justify's massive neck.  Look at Justify's ears.  One of them is kinda half cocked back to his rider, and that's saying, hey, can you loosen up on these reins a little bit so that I can run?  In other words, he's ready.  If you add that to Baffert's history, he's won four Derbies, six Preaknesses, two Belmonts and a Triple Crown.  He says Justify is the best-looking colt he's ever bought here.  I'd say that oughta do for creating major fear.

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