Baseball has never had two simultaneous off-season pursuits as glamorous, yet utterly different, as the current chases after Shohei Ohtani, 23, the pitch-and-slug Babe Ruth of Japan, and Giancarlo Stanton, the N.L. MVP who hit 59 homers.
Ohtani alone makes this winter unique because he’s one of the greatest bargains ever. Last season he threw a pitch 101.6 mph and hit a ball that left his bat at 111.1 mph. He’s 6-foot-4, 203pounds, yet from the left-handed batter’s box was timed to first base in 3.8 seconds, the same as speedster Dee Gordon.
But he’ll cost his new team just $20 million in “posting fee” to his old club, the Nippon-Ham Fighters, plus international bonus pool money to him, which would be chicken feed of two or three million bucks. Then, for at least the next six seasons he’d be just another underpaid MLB chattel with free agency far away.
Why is Ohtani “posting” now, when if he waited three years, he’d qualify for rules that might let him make a dozen times more bonus money? He loves the game, wants to prove himself and, from a small town, is said to be unpretentious. He has named seven teams with whom he’s willing to sign. If you want a read on his personality, one of the first teams to whom he said, “No thanks” was the Yankees.
What a Christmas present, probably for the front-running Mariners, Angels, Rangers or maybe Dodgers. They’re all on Ohtani’s lucky list of landing spots with a deadline to sign by Dec. 23.
The first three suitors are all in the A.L., where Ohtani, who loves to hit, could be a designated hitter at times. Seattle and Anaheim are on the West Coast, which Ohtani is said to prefer — closer to home. The Rangers helped Yu Darvish acclimate to the majors. In theory, both Darvish, now a free agent, and Ohtani could be Rangers together for years into the future.
[Barry Svrluga: In Shohei Ohtani bidding, MLB teams need to make pitches and at-bats]
All three of these teams had losing records last year, too, which means that any obvious 2018 contender in the N.L. who’s been thwarted in recent Octobers would celebrate if Ohtani goes to the A.L. (Read: The Nationals.)
But never discount the Dodgers because . . . they’re the Dodgers.
As can’t-miss as Ohtani appears to be, he still must prove himself in the big leagues. He’s mostly a fastball-slider pitcher with an average “spin rate” (which indicates how much a fastball appears to hop). His breaking ball is wicked, but his fastball might be a bit straight, although Noah Syndergaard was the only starter in MLB who topped Ohtani’s average fastball of 97.5 mph last season. As a hitter, Ohtani struck out 27 percent of the time in Japan. Will he connect often enough?
Stanton, on the other hand, is a fabulous proven slugger, but one with a $295-million guaranteed contract over the next 10 years, through age 37, plus an opt-out clause after the 2020 season. That’s doubled edged. If he gets hurt — he’s averaged 128 games a year in his past eight seasons — or ages poorly, you’re stuck with his contract. But if he keeps mashing, he might skip town in three years.
Stanton, who’ll only be 28 next year, should have a monstrous near-term future. But the post-30 lives of similar musclemen have been a dangerous mixed bag. For every prodigious Harmon Killebrew or Reggie Jackson who was worth the money from ages 31 through 37, there are more “Stanton comparables” such as Juan Gonzalez, Jose Canseco, Prince Fielder, Adam Dunn, Rocky Colavito and Greg Luzinski, who would’ve been anchors for most of a Stanton-like 10-year deal.
The Miami Marlins, now owned by Derek Jeter, have Stanton on the trading block so they can cut payroll while they rebuild a money-losing franchise that draws poorly even with Stanton. But the giant slugger, who has complete trade-approval in his contract, won’t necessarily leave.
Why? Because his contract is basically market value. The scales of talent versus money are close. So why would any team give the Marlins a bunch of wonderful prospects and pick up the $295-million tab, too? They wouldn’t. So, every potential Stanton deal will be a wrangle, balancing the value of the prospects offered versus how much of the $295-million the Marlins will eat.
Right now, the Giants and Cardinals are the rich teams that are most desperate to add a huge bat to fill an outfield void. Every ready-to-win-in-’18 contender, such as the Nats, hopes that Stanton, if he’s traded, ends up in San Francisco (64-98). A right-handed hitter likely won’t blast 59 homers with that home park. And no player, even Stanton, turns a 98-game loser into an elite team in one year.
Once again, the team circling in the sky is the Dodgers. The more you study their 2017 payroll, which was the most expensive in the game, and their future obligations, the more you can see ways that they might be able to afford Stanton. It’d be like solving a financial Rubik’s Cube. But don’t put it past the Bums. In October, they were one win shy of the world title they’ve sought since ’88. When you’ve come that close, and you’re that rich, sometimes you buy the pot.
[Report: Marlins have Giancarlo Stanton trade framework with Giants, Cardinals]
Every winter, baseball fans make harmless, but passionate predictions about a future they realize that they can’t possibly guess. But we do it anyway, in part to pass the time, and in part because no one will remember by spring training.
Next year, I predict that Ohtani will bat .300 with 11 homers and 61 RBI in 361 at-bats while also pitching 166 innings with a 13-7 record and a 2.22 ERA.
Why those numbers?
Just think for a second. If you’re a baseball fan, you probably already know.
Yes, those were Ruth’s statistics in 1918 — 100 years ago as of next season.
No one else, except the Babe in that one season for the Red Sox, ever pitched enough innings to qualify for an ERA title and had more than 400 plate appearances, too. That year, Ruth led the A.L. in home runs and also won both his starts in the World Series. In one of them, Ruth tripled home two runs in a 3-2 win. He was 23. Just like Ohtani now.
By ’19, Ruth was mostly an outfielder. By ’20, he was a Yank and hit 54 home runs. After that, with the sports world agape, regular pitching was in his past.
Maybe Ohtani is not a fine enough hitter to merit being in the lineup as a DH (or an outfielder) once or twice a week between pitching starts. Maybe nobody has the combination of skills at such an elite level to pull it off. Besides, who has the stamina to carry both loads and enough hours in the day to keep the mechanics of both a pitching delivery and a batting swing in sync. Ruth only managed it for a little while.
But Shohei (Show-hey) Ohtani wants to try. If he succeeds, even at levels much lower than Ruth, he will redefine what is possible in his sport today. For himself now, and, probably for others who will try to follow his example.
At the very least, he already has made us revisit, and admire, what the Babe, and until now, only the Babe, was able to do 100 years ago.
Read more coverage: Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani tells Yankees and Red Sox he’ll sign elsewhere As relievers begin to move, history suggests the Nationals should bid with caution Nationals’ plans hinge on Shohei Ohtani or Giancarlo Stanton despite not being in the running
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