In this season’s Penn State preview, I talked about how expectations change just about everything.
No one will underestimate Penn State any more. You can’t fly under the radar in the preseason top 10. The defending conference champions will get an A-game performance from everyone, and it’s safe to say teams like Iowa and Ohio State are licking their chops in welcoming PSU to town.
In 2016, James Franklin’s Nittany Lions skipped a couple of steps on the developmental ladder. He was just 16-14 over the first 30 games of his PSU tenure, and following a loss at Pitt and a blowout at Michigan, it didn’t look like 2016 was going to go any better.
Since then, they are 20-3. They rolled through the rest of the Big Ten, beating Ohio State and taking down Wisconsin in the conference title game before losing in the last second to USC in the Rose Bowl. And this fall, while preparing to take home run swings from every opponent on the schedule, they engineered maybe the steadiest 13-game performance in the country.
- They constantly started quickly, outscoring opponents by an average of 10.5 points in the first quarter. You could argue PSU was the best-prepared team in the country.
- They didn’t give bad teams even a sliver of hope. They played seven teams ranked 50th or worse in S&P+ and won by an average score of 49-12.
- They got revenge on the two teams that beat them in the 2016 regular season, stomping Pitt 33-14 and Michigan 42-13.
- Their losses came by a combined four points to 11-2 Ohio State and 10-3 Michigan State. Both were in the last second.
The Nittany Lions would’ve needed basically a single additional break on the road — one fewer outstanding fourth-quarter play from Ohio State’s J.T. Barrett or Michigan State’s Brian Lewerke, one fewer sluggish play in the moments following the storm delay in East Lansing — to end up in the College Football Playoff.
From a recruiting standpoint, PSU still isn’t on the level of the Alabamas and Clemsons. And in 2018, they’ll have to replace not only all-world running back Saquon Barkley and star receiver DaeSean Hamilton, but also quite a few key defenders, from linebackers Jason Cabinda and Brandon Smith to safeties Marcus Allen and Troy Apke.
But the Nittany Lions rose to the challenge this fall. The Fiesta Bowl was a PSU microcosm. Against a Washington team that had an even bigger Playoff what-if case, the Nittany Lions pulled a Penn State, jumping out early and forcing an opponent to exhaust itself trying to catch up. Hamilton’s 48-yard touchdown and Barkley’s 2-yard score gave them their customary 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter, and while Washington would occasionally find some offensive success, it was scattershot.
Barkley’s 92-yard touchdown gave PSU a 28-7 lead five minutes into the second quarter, and when UW inched back to within 28-21, the Nittany Lions put together a lovely eight-play, 70-yard scoring drive — again capped by a Hamilton score — to all but ice the game. Myles Gaskin’s late 69-yard touchdown run made things a bit interesting down the stretch, but PSU won.
Washington proved itself as a resilient, talented team (and guess what: the Huskies will be next year, too, and probably every year with Chris Petersen). But this was Penn State’s evening. Barkley and Hamilton went out in style, and quarterback Trace McSorley made a statement for the 2018 Nittany Lions. He completed 32 of 41 passes, 342 yards and two scores, and he offset two interceptions by going 12-for-12 on third downs. Washington simply couldn’t get the ball back when it needed to.
If Penn State wasn’t the steadiest team, conference mate Wisconsin was. (Unbeaten UCF also has a case, obviously.) Between the two of them, they didn’t play a single bad game.
Playoff participants Clemson (at Syracuse), Oklahoma (Iowa State), Alabama (at Auburn), and Georgia (at Auburn) all suffered at least one mini-collapse. Ohio State was left out of the CFP because of the single most baffling egg-laying of the season (at Iowa). Auburn collapsed in the SEC title game. USC got destroyed by Notre Dame.
But PSU’s two losses came by four combined points, and Wisconsin’s came by six points to Ohio State on a neutral field. They handled their business more consistently than any other top team.
Also like PSU, Wisconsin played on brand in its bowl game. Against a Miami that showed some fun wrinkles early and some fight late, the Badgers established control with a perfect second quarter and held the Canes at bay.
Trailing 14-3 at the start of the second stanza, they surged to a 24-14 halftime lead. Miami struck back, but Derrick Tindal intercepted an aspiring Malik Rosier touchdown pass, and Wisconsin kicked a field goal to extend the lead. When Miami responded with a fourth-quarter field goal of its own, the Badgers put the game away with a 75-yard touchdown drive.
The difference ended up being the quarterback position. Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor got his yards — 26 carries, 130 yards — but so did Miami’s Travis Homer and DeeJay Dallas (combined: 20 for 133). UW’s Alex Hornibrook, however, completed 23 of 34 passes for 258 yards and four scores, taking full advantage of his two four-star youngsters in the receiving corps. Sophomore A.J. Taylor and freshman Danny Davis combined to catch 13 passes for 161 yards and all four of Hornibrook’s scores.
Rosier showed flashes but still ended up proving why Miami head coach Mark Richt says the QB competition will be completely open this spring. He connected on some big passes to Lawrence Cager (four catches, 76 yards) but finished 11-for-26 with three picks. And as with the Fiesta Bowl, third downs were huge. Hornibrook was 7-for-11 for 85 yards on such downs; Rosier: 3-for-8 for 35.
On Friday’s Podcast Ain’t Played Nobody, I noted something my co-worker Dan Rubenstein had pointed out: Teams with the better Def. S&P+ ranking had won nearly every damn bowl so far this season.
Iowa State-Memphis was a pretty good test of this phenomenon. Memphis entered third in Off. S&P+ but 106th in Def. S&P+. Iowa State was 71st and 31st, respectively.
The Cyclones had maybe the hottest defense in the Big 12 down the stretch, allowing more than 20 points in just one of their final eight games. Memphis had scored at least 42 points in each of its last six games. Even in the offense-heavy AAC, that’s impressive.
Defense indeed won the Liberty Bowl. Memphis landed some shots and averaged a decent 5.7 yards per play to ISU’s 4.3. But the Tigers continuously stalled out before reaching the end zone. They settled for three field goals, missing one. They punted from the 39 and turned the ball over on downs twice in ISU territory.
ISU missed its own chances, too, but played lovely ball control. And as was the theme of the day, the Cyclones converted their third downs (7-for-17) while Memphis did not (3-for-12). ISU’s Kyle Kempt was 7-for-11 for 137 yards with two sacks on third downs; Memphis’ Riley Ferguson: 5-for-8 for 46 and three sacks.
Quarterback Keytaon Thompson was a big get for now-former Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen. The four-star from New Orleans was a top-200 recruit and being groomed to replace junior star Nick Fitzgerald.
When Fitzgerald was hurt early in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss, Thompson struggled at first. He completed just 13 of 27 passes, and his 121 rushing yards weren’t enough to overcome missteps in a 31-28 loss. He engineered three straight TD drives to end the game, however.
In the TaxSlayer Bowl, Thompson picked up where he left off. Matched up against maybe the greatest dual-threat quarterback of all time (Louisville’s Lamar Jackson), he put on a show. He completed a decent 11 of 20 for 147 yards but rushed for 147 yards and three scores. And while Jackson outdid him from a yardage perspective (171 passing, 158 rushing), he also threw only one interception to Jackson’s four. And he made the fourth-quarter plays that Jackson didn’t.
MSU outscored the Cardinals 14-3 in the final 15 minutes, securing a ninth win for the third time in four years despite an interim coaching staff.
Thompson will drift back to the second string for a season as we see what Fitzgerald can do in new head coach (and former Penn State offensive coordinator) Joe Moorhead’s exciting system. But Thompson could be ready for big things when it’s his turn again in 2019.
College football's first bowl game was almost its last
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