NFL odds, picks for Week 1: Advanced computer model loves Saints, Cardinals

The Eagles outlasted the Falcons 18-12 in the 2018 NFL Kickoff on Thursday. Now, professional and amateur bettors alike are putting down wagers on the remaining 15 games on the Week 1 NFL schedule, which culminates in a Monday Night Football doubleheader. NFL odds have been swinging back and forth, with up to five-point movement reported at some books. The Broncos are now favored by three against the Seahawks after opening as 1.5-point favorites, the Packers are seven-point favorites against the Bears on Sunday Night Football, and the Saints are favored by 9.5 against the Buccaneers, the largest NFL spread of the week. With so many high-profile games and so many NFL odds on the move, you need to see the Week 1 NFL picks and predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

This proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and 2017. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.

Now it has simulated every snap of Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season 10,000 times and its Week 1 NFL picks are in.

One Week 1 NFL pick from the model we can give away: the Cardinals (-1) win and cover the spread with room to spare against the Redskins.

Washington has a completely new-look in the backfield with Alex Smith now at the helm in place of Kirk Cousins. Adrian Peterson, who was in Arizona last season, also came over in the offseason to help replace rookie Derrius Guice, who tore his ACL in the preseason.

The model is predicting some growing pains for Washington and likes new Arizona quarterback Sam Bradford to throw for 254 yards in his debut after coming over from Minnesota. Back the Cardinals with confidence because they cover the spread almost 60 percent of the time. The computer is calling for a 24-19 Arizona victory, so you can back the Under (44) in that game as well.

Another Week 1 NFL pick we'll give away: New Orleans (-9.5) comes out of the gates strong against Tampa Bay with a victory that covers the largest spread of the week. It'll be played inside the fast track of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Saints will be without running back Mark Ingram (suspension) to open the season, but second-year back Alvin Kamara showed that he's more than capable of carrying the load last year. The computer is calling for over 100 yards of total offense and a touchdown for the reigning NFL Rookie of the Year.

According to the model, the Saints overwhelm a Tampa Bay squad that will turn to journeyman quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in the absence of Jameis Winston (suspension). New Orleans covers the spread well over half the time and you can back the Over (49.5) as well because the computer is calling for that to clear with room to spare. Don't be turned off by the large spread - back the Saints on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

The model also has a strong pick you need to see for the huge AFC showdown between Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson, and it's also calling for one Super Bowl contender to come flying out of the gates with a monumental victory that doubles the spread. You can get all these NFL picks only over at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 1? Check out the latest NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, all from the model that has beaten 98 percent of experts over the past two years.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+4.5, 44)
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 46)
Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-7.5, 40.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Giants (+3, 42.5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 49.5)
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-6, 51)
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 48)
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45)
Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 48)
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3, 42.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (-3, 42.5)
Washington Redskins at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 44)
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7, 47.5)
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (-6.5, 45)
Los Angeles Rams at Oakland Raiders (+4, 48.5)