British Open 2018 odds: Model that nailed the Masters makes surprising picks

Everyone has an opinion on the British Open, one of the most-bet golf tournaments of the year. On Thursday, the 2018 British Open, also known as the Open Championship, returns to Carnoustie Championship Course in Scotland for the first time since 2007. That year, Padraig Harrington defeated Sergio Garcia in a dramatic four-hole playoff. Dustin Johnson enters the British Open 2018 as the Vegas favorite at 12-1. Right behind him on the 2018 British Open odds board is Rory McIlroy, listed at 14-1, and Justin Rose and defending champ Jordan Spieth, who are going off at 16-1 Open Championship odds. Before you make any 2018 British Open picks or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on FanDuel or DraftKings, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, which was built by DFS pro Mike McClure, nailed the 2018 Masters, predicting the career-defining victory for Patrick Reed entering the weekend. It also nailed the Masters and U.S. Open last year, calling wins for Sergio Garcia and Brooks Koepka entering the weekend. Then, it was all over Spieth at the Open Championship from the start and called his third major victory with three rounds to play.

Now that the 147th Open Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the British Open 2018: Sergio Garcia, a long shot at 25-1 Open Championship odds, makes a serious run at the title. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

After 73 majors without a win, Garcia finally achieved his dream with a playoff victory against Justin Rose at the 2017 Masters. And he has performed extremely well at the British Open in years past. Garcia has 10 top-10 finishes, including two runner-ups, at the Open Championship.

Another surprise: Back-to-back U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka doesn't sniff the top 15 at the British Open 2018.

This year, Koepka joined Ben Hogan and Curtis Strange as the only players to win back-to-back U.S. Opens since World War II, and his second major title came in just his sixth start after returning from a wrist injury. He has only played in one tournament on the PGA Tour since his victory at the 2018 U.S. Open, a 19th-place finish at the Travelers Championship. Koepka enters the 2018 Open Championship with a 56.31 driving accuracy percentage, which ranks just 164th on the PGA Tour. Not finding the fairways at Carnoustie, the longest course in the Open's rotation, will make it tough for Koepka to contend with his fellow 2018 British Open qualifiers.

Also, the model says five additional golfers with odds of 18-1 or longer will make a deep run at the Open Championship title, including a monster long shot. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Open Championship, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated 2018 British Open odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the Open Championship projected leaderboard from the model that's nailed four of the last six majors heading into the weekend.

Dustin Johnson 12-1
Rory McIlroy 14-1
Jordan Spieth 16-1
Justin Rose 16-1
Rickie Fowler 18-1
Justin Thomas 18-1
Tommy Fleetwood 18-1
Brooks Koepka 20-1
Jon Rahm 20-1
Tiger Woods 20-1
Jason Day 25-1
Henrik Stenson 25-1
Sergio Garcia 25-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
Patrik Reed 30-1
Paul Casey 30-1
Alex Noren 30-1
Phil Mickelson 40-1
Marc Leishman 40-1
Branden Grace 40-1