Just how much will the Warriors miss Steph Curry?

Steve Kerr and the Warriors will have to survive without Steph Curry for a while. (Kyle Terada/USA TODAY Sports)

The Golden State Warriors announced on Saturday two-time MVP Stephen Curry will miss at least three weeks with a Grade 2 medial collateral ligament sprain in his left knee, casting some doubt on their chances to repeat as NBA champions.

Curry was averaging 26.4 points, 6.1 assists and 4.4 rebounds with a league-leading true shooting percentage of 67.5 percent per game before the injury and is the third-most valuable player in 2017-18 per ESPN’s Real Plus Minus (plus-6.0), a metric which estimates a player’s on-court impact after taking into account a player’s teammates and opponents. Only the Houston Rockets’ superstar tandem of James Harden (plus-7.1) and Chris Paul (plus-7.0) have been better this season.

The Warriors offense is built around Curry’s ability to move the ball and draw the attention of defenders. His 1.4 points per possession in the half-court offense puts him in the 95th percentile among NBA players this season and Golden State’s offense is more than 14 points per 100 possessions better when Curry is on the court. This offensive gap is a bit misleading, however, and his absence shouldn’t derail a championship run by Golden State, though it does make it much more difficult.

The most frequently used lineup featuring Curry is loaded with talent and includes former MVP and scoring champ Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, the 2016-17 defensive player of the year, and Klay Thompson, a two-time all-NBA team member. Those four, along with center Zaza Pachulia, have outscored opponents by 8.2 net points per 100 possessions this season.

Durant, Green, Thompson and Pachulia have outscored opponents by 10.1 net points per 100 possessions with Curry on the bench or unavailable to play. Part of that improvement could be a function of a smaller sample size of games — Coach Steve Kerr has used the latter just 67 minutes this season — but it does show the team can at least keep it together without Curry on the court.

Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia …	Minutes	Ortg	DRtg	Net Rtg	True shooting rate
With Stephen Curry	414	120.9	112.7	8.2	64.9%
Without Stephen Curry	67	119.3	109.2	10.1	62.3%

The biggest change is a shift from shots at the rim and behind the three-point line to those from midrange, perhaps a byproduct of backup point guard Shaun Livingston taking just four three-point attempts all season. He has just 70 three-point attempts over his career, which started in 2004-05.

If the season ended today, the Warriors, the No. 2 team in the West, would face the Minnesota Timberwolves in the first round. Based on their win-loss record to date and what we would expect their win-loss record to be according to their points scored and allowed, the Warriors would be expected to win a seven-game series with home-court advantage against the Timberwolves 89 percent of the time. If you adjust the Warriors record without Curry this season for the small sample size (13-8), Golden State would win the first-round series against Minnesota 67 percent of the time.

If Curry isn’t available for the second round, which would bring the winner of Portland Trail Blazers and San Antonio Spurs, the Warriors — using the adjusted win rate without Curry — would be expected to win a seven-game series with home-court advantage 63 and 66 percent of the time, respectively.

Assuming the Warriors make it as far as the Western Conference finals, where they should meet the Houston Rockets, the top seed in the West, they would no longer have home-court advantage, making them the underdog in this matchup. With a healthy Curry, the Warriors would be expected to pull off the upset 33 percent of the time. Without him, that drops to just 11 percent. In other words, Curry’s presence in the lineup boosts the Warriors chances of making the NBA Finals from 3 to 22 percent.