Collapse Leaves Trae Young and Oklahoma Awaiting NCAA Fate

Oklahoma and its exciting freshman guard, Trae Young, looked to be the most intriguing team in N.C.A.A. men’s basketball this season, a serious candidate for the Final Four.

Young is averaging 27 points and 9 assists a game, leading the nation in both categories. An unexpected superstar, he lit up Oregon for 43 points in his fifth career game. The Sooners raced to a 14-2 start and a No. 4 national ranking after not being in the preseason top 25 at all.

Then something went wrong.

Oklahoma is 4-11 since. Its 8-10 Big 12 record was good for only a four-way tie for sixth place.

On Wednesday, Oklahoma surrendered in the first round of the conference tournament, 71-60. Worse, the loss came to its rival Oklahoma State, hardly one of the conference’s best teams.

It seems impossible based on how it was playing in January, but could Oklahoma and Young not even make the tournament this season?

“I didn’t expect to be in this position, by any means,” Young told reporters after Wednesday’s loss. “I obviously expected us to keep winning, hopefully to have a chance to get a 1-seed, 2-seed, up in that range.”

Oklahoma has not won away from home since December and has won just two away games all season.

Just before the Oklahoma State loss, many speculated the team would be seeded ninth, or thereabouts. Now both ESPN and CBS bracketologists have the Sooners barely squeaking into a tournament play-in game as an 11th seed.

Jeff Sagarin’s computer ranking has Oklahoma 34th, uncomfortably low for an at-large berth. Its R.P.I. rating has dropped into the 40s.

The Jekyll and Hyde quality of the team is hard to understand. Although there were a few shuffles in playing time, the team basically rolled out the same players on Wednesday as it had in a 20-point win over the same team in January. But the team’s shooting fell from 54 percent to 38 percent, its 3-point shooting from 56 to 33 and even its free-throw shooting from 71 to 58.

Rebounding was about the only area from that easy January win that might have been a concern. Oklahoma was outrebounded by one in the win. On Wednesday, the Sooners’ rebounding was woeful, with State having a 47-26 advantage. Oklahoma had five offensive rebounds total.

Young had a game-high 22 points and 5 assists, but shot 7 for 21.

Young still looks like a top-10 pick in this year’s N.B.A. draft, assuming he leaves school as expected. Perhaps he will be the first small man selected.

“Our body of work speaks for itself, and I think we have a good shot of getting in just because of our résumé.” Young said.

Sooners fans will hope that Oklahoma recaptures its early-season form and that Young gets a good send-off to the pros when it plays in the N.C.A.A. tournament or, gulp, the N.I.T.

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