The Tennessee Titans return to the NFL playoffs for the first time since 2008, when they went 13-3, won the AFC South and earned the conference's No. 1 seed.
Circumstances are different this time around, however. Tennessee faces an uphill battle to the Super Bowl as a No. 5 seed, and it starts the postseason with a wild-card road game against the Kansas City Chiefs, who went 6-2 at Arrowhead Stadium this year.
Per OddsShark, the Chiefs are eight-point favorites in a matchup with a 44.5-point over/under total. The game will be telecast on ESPN and ABC at 4:35 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Here's a look at three predictions, capped with a score pick at the end.
Three Predictions
1. Chiefs Dink and Dunk Their Way Down the Field All Night
If you parse through the pass-directional data provided by Football Outsiders, you'll notice that the Titans seem most susceptible to short passes over the middle.
That could be a big problem against a Kansas City Chiefs team that could hypothetically send running back Kareem Hunt, tight end Travis Kelce and wideout Albert Wilson in that area early and often.
Hunt has been a factor in the aerial attack all year, catching 53 passes on 63 targets for 455 yards and three scores. Kelce eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight season alongside 83 receptions and a career-high eight touchdowns. And Wilson is coming off a 10-catch, 147-yard performance.
If the Titans do shore up the short and middle, they need to be watchful of wideout Tyreek Hill, who can take the top off any defense.
Ultimately, it seems as though Kansas City simply has too many weapons on offense for Tennessee to contain. That's the case for most teams against a Chiefs offense that looks like it's past its midseason slump.
2. Neither Team Gets Going on the Ground
The guess here is that the Chiefs and Titans won't find much success running the football, albeit for different reasons.
The Titans run defense is one of the best units in the league. Per Football Outsiders, the Titans finished seventh in run-defense DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). They also finished tied for fourth in running back yards per carry allowed (3.44).
Although Kareem Hunt has enjoyed a solid end to his regular season after a team-wide midseason slump, he may find it hard to get going against Tennessee's stout front seven.
Tennessee could very well get Derrick Henry rolling on the ground, but the issue is that it could find itself playing from behind. If the Chiefs find themselves with a two-score lead in the second half, for example, then the Titans are going to have to go to the air to keep pace.
The key here is the first quarter. If Henry can get going and the Titans control the time of possession, then they are in good shape. If not, then their efforts could be facing an uphill climb all day.
3. Chiefs 27, Titans 13
Even if Hunt can't get going on the ground, he, Kelce and Wilson should be able to do damage against the Titans pass defense little by little. On paper, it looks like the Chiefs could win this game by slowly moving the chains all night and sustaining long scoring drives.
If that's the case, then Tennessee is in trouble, as the passing game has not fared well this year. Quarterback Marcus Mariota ranked just 27th in quarterback rating this year, and he's thrown two more interceptions than touchdowns. In fairness, Mariota has fought numerous obstacles this year (namely hamstring and groin injuries), and first-round pick Corey Davis has been battling hamstring problems this season.
That being said, the Titans are going into this game having lost three of four. Furthermore, they haven't scored above 24 points since October 16.
Therefore, the bet here is on the Chiefs, who will move to 7-2 at home on the season and head to the divisional round for the third straight season.
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