Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Nick Foles completed 26 passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns in the Eagles’ win. (David Maialetti/The Philadelphia Inquirer via AP)
The New England Patriots opened as the favorites in their upcoming Super Bowl matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, but that doesn’t mean it will be easy for Coach Bill Belichick and Tom Brady to earn their sixth championship ring together. In fact, it could become very difficult if Eagles quarterback Nick Foles can exploit a glaring weakness in this year’s Patriots team: a poor pass defense that is one of the worst of any Super Bowl team coached by Belichick in New England.
The Patriots allowed opposing quarterbacks to produce an 89.5 passer rating against. Since 2001, Belichick and Brady’s first title together, only the 2008 squad, which failed to qualify for the postseason, was worse (89.8). The NFL is a passing league, so not being able to effectively hamper opposing quarterbacks is a problem. It is also why net passer rating differential, dubbed the “Mother of All Stats,” has been a reliable litmus test for Super Bowl-caliber teams — it isn’t good enough to overwhelm an opponent on offense, you also have to limit their ability to throw down the field on defense.
Since 2002, 22 of the past 30 Super Bowl participants had a passer rating differential among the top five in the league, including 10 of the past 15 winners. The outliers among the eventual Super Bowl winners include the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers (seventh), 2007 New York Giants (24th), 2011 Giants (12th), 2012 Baltimore Ravens (12th) and 2015 Denver Broncos (18th).
[The Patriots don’t need Rob Gronkowski to beat the Eagles in the Super Bowl]
Looked another way, New England’s pass defense allows opponents to score 3.3 more points per game than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each throw. Only the 2011 Patriots, who were upset by the Giants in Super Bowl XLVI, were worse in the Belichick/Brady era.
Perhaps this wouldn’t be as concerning if quarterback Nick Foles hadn’t just dismantled the Minnesota Vikings’ defense in the NFC championship game. The Vikings entered that game allowing a passer rating of 74.0 yet Foles was able to turn in a career performance, completing 26 passes for 352 yards and three touchdowns in the Eagles’ win (141.4 passer rating). Per Elias, Foles was also the first quarterback in NFL history with completions for more than 40 yards to three different receivers in one postseason game.
Eagles: 38 points yesterday are the most against a No. 1 scoring defense in the postseason since the Patriots scored 41 in the 2004 AFC Championship at the Steelers pic.twitter.com/mPw7ZZcUcj
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 22, 2018
Most impressive was how Foles handled the Vikings’ pass rush, which was widely considered among the best in the NFL. Foles completed 7 of 10 attempts under pressure for 139 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, producing a sparkling 152.1 passer rating out of a possible 158.3. That’s a remarkable turnaround considering Foles had a 23.8 passer rating under pressure during the regular season. Yes, that is as bad as it sounds: an incomplete pass produces a passer rating of 39.6.
| Nick Foles in 2017 | Regular season | vs. Vikings in NFC championship game |
| No pressure | 107.8 | 119.7 |
| Plays under pressure | 23.8 | 152.1 |
Foles also extended the defense with deep throws, completing 4 of 6 passes traveling at least 20 yards in the air for 172 yards and two touchdowns. He was 2 for 15 on those throws leading up to the big win on Sunday, compiling 52 yards and no touchdowns while also throwing an interception.
[The Patriots are in a familiar spot heading into the Super Bowl]
So it all comes down to how good the Patriots defense is on Super Bowl Sunday. In wins this season, including the playoffs, the Patriots allow a passer rating of 83.2. That jumps to 130.6 in losses, lower than the passer rating Foles turned in the NFC championship game (141.1).
One more big game from him and we could be looking at a historic upset.
Read more from The Post:
The Eagles are not afraid of “Pretty Boy Tom Brady” and the Patriots
The Jaguars are not alone in noticing the Patriots had just one penalty
Nick Foles has come full circle and the Eagles are headed for the Super Bowl
Things got a little weird in Philly with bloody fans and greased light poles
Super Bowl trip drives Eagles’ Zach Ertz and his soccer-star wife Julie Ertz to tears
Read Again https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2018/01/22/the-patriots-have-a-glaring-weakness-can-nick-foles-and-the-eagles-exploit-it/Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "The Patriots have a glaring weakness. Can Nick Foles and the Eagles exploit it?"
Post a Comment