The NFC and AFC Championship Games in the NFL playoffs on Sunday will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors. The Patriots are 7.5-point favorites over the Jaguars and the Vikings are three-point favorites over the Eagles. The Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas think will be scored, is 39 for Vikings-Eagles and 45.5 for Jaguars-Patriots.
With two eye-popping games and NFL odds already on the move, you need to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.
With a 181-83 record, SportsLine is beating nearly every expert tracked on NFLPickWatch for the second straight season.
And after finishing the regular season on a blistering 74-22 run, it's fresh off a week in which it nailed the Eagles' upset over the Falcons and went 3-1 overall. It was the second straight week in which the model correctly predicted an outright upset. Anyone who has followed its advice is up big.
With the conference title games here, the computer simulated both games 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.
We can tell you that the model is loving the Under (45.5) in Jaguars-Patriots. It's hitting in 59 percent of simulations, and that's in stark contrast to the general public, who is only backing it 44 percent of the time, even with the hand injury to Tom Brady.
The model knows this game features two of the top overall defenses in the league. The Patriots are allowing opponents an average of 18.5 points per game (fifth in the NFL), while the Jaguars are holding their opponents just 16.8 points per game (second).
New England's improved defense helped the Patriots go 11-1 in their last 12 regular season games, only allowing opponents an average of 14 points during that span. They held the Titans to just 14 points last week.
New England's stingy defense helped the total go Under in nine of its past 13 games overall. The total has also gone Under in four of New England's last six home games against the Jaguars.
We're still waiting to see how Brady will be able to throw after injuring his right hand in practice after a collision with RB Rex Burkhead. The Patriots have been tight-lipped about how serious things may or may not be with their star quarterback. Any issues with Brady's hand could send the Patriots' point total plummeting.
CBS Sports' Jason La Canfora Tweeted the day of the injury, "Based on everything I am hearing right now, Tom Brady's hand should be okay by Sunday. Not a big concern at this point." He added on Friday, "When asked if he will play on Sunday, Brady says: 'We'll see.'"
NFL.com's Ian Rapoport said that the Patriots' signal caller threw the ball "incredibly well" on Friday.
SportsLine's advanced computer model says that if Brady plays, he'll throw for almost 250 yards and two touchdowns, with TE Rob Gronkowski having the best chance of finding the end zone through the air.
SportsLine's advanced model says you can expect 42 points to be scored in Jags-Patriots, easily clearing the Under.
The model also has strong against-the-spread picks for Vikings-Eagles and Patriots-Jaguars that you absolutely need to see and is calling for a team with strong Super Bowl aspirations to get the shock of a lifetime. If you go with the model on that one, you'll be up big. You can only get those picks at SportsLine.
What NFL picks can you make with confidence for the AFC and NFC Championship Games? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus find out which team with strong Super Bowl aspirations gets the shock of a lifetime, all from the model that nailed the Eagles' upset of the Falcons, plus get NFL picks from 20 experts.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots (-7.5, 45.5)
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (+3, 39)
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