As the meetings to determine the fourth and final spot in the College Football Playoff are underway, the Associated Press voters have made their decision. For whatever that is worth, the AP Top 25 following conference championship Saturday has placed Alabama at No. 4 just ahead of Big Ten champion Ohio State.
While the AP and coaches poll do not always indicate how the selection committee will operate, it is still worth monitoring as you try to guess how this will all shake out. There was little dispute over No. 1 in the AP poll with Clemson receiving 43 first-place votes to stay on top ahead of No. 2 Oklahoma (18 first-place votes). SEC champion Georgia bumped up three spots but did not receive any first-place votes.
In the last three seasons, 11 of the 12 teams ranked in the AP’s end-of-the-regular season top 25 following conference championship games have been selected to play in the playoff. Only No. 4 Baylor in 2014 missed out on the playoff, with No. 5 Ohio State getting the nod from the committee.
The Buckeyes moved up three spots and are ranked just ahead of No. 6 Wisconsin, with the Badgers falling three spots.No. 7 Auburn also fell three spots, and Pac-12 champion USC moved up three spots to No. 8. The Trojans moved ahead of idle Penn State, who stayed firm at No. 9. AAC champion UCF, on the strength of an undefeated season, cracked the top 10 at No. 10, just ahead of No. 11 Miami.
Here is the full top 25 from the AP as we head to the bowl season:
- Clemson (43 first-place votes)
- Oklahoma (18)
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin
- Auburn
- USC
- Penn State
- UCF
- Miami
- Washington
- TCU
- Notre Dame
- Stanford
- LSU
- Oklahoma State
- Michigan State
- Memphis
- Northwestern
- Washington State
- Virginia Tech
- USF
- Mississippi State
- Boise State
Sad as it is to say, the 2017 college football campaign in on its last legs and is moving on to the final phase: the postseason. While it’s a bummer that we only have a handful of games left in the year, the excitement is also about to pick up even more because it means the chase for the national title is down to four in the College Football Playoff.
With all that in mind, CFTalk decided to peer into our crystal ball and take a look at the postseason picture one final time — figuring out which teams wind up in certain bowl games prior to the official announcements on Sunday afternoon. Running through all the scenarios, here’s how the bowl picture could play out from the final four to the very first one on December 16th:
College Football Playoff
| Bowl | Teams | |
|---|---|---|
| Rose Bowl | No. 2 Oklahoma* | No. 3 Georgia* |
| Sugar Bowl | No. 1 Clemson* | No. 4 Alabama |
New Year’s Six
| Bowl | Teams | |
|---|---|---|
| Peach Bowl | UCF* | Notre Dame |
| Fiesta Bowl | USC* | Penn State |
| Orange Bowl | Miami | Wisconsin |
| Cotton Bowl | Ohio State* | Auburn |
2017 FBS Bowl Games
| Bowl | Teams | |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Bowl | Troy | North Texas |
| Cure Bowl | Marshall | Georgia State |
| Las Vegas Bowl | Arizona | Boise State |
| New Mexico Bowl | Colorado State | UTSA |
| Camellia Bowl | Akron | Arkansas State |
| Boca Raton Bowl | Temple | Florida Atlantic |
| Frisco Bowl | SMU | UCLA |
| Gasparilla Bowl | Western Kentucky | FIU |
| Bahamas Bowl | UAB+ | Ohio+ |
| Famous Idaho Potato Bowl | Wyoming | Northern Illinois |
| Birmingham Bowl | USF | West Virginia |
| Armed Forces Bowl | Army+ | Southern Miss |
| Dollar General Bowl | Toledo | App. State |
| Hawaii Bowl | Fresno State | Houston |
| Cactus Bowl | Kansas State | Oregon |
| Quick Lane Bowl | Central Michigan | Purdue |
| Heart of Dallas Bowl | Texas Tech | Utah |
| Independence Bowl | Louisiana Tech | Duke |
| Pinstripe Bowl | Boston College | Iowa |
| Texas Bowl | Texas | Missouri |
| Foster Farms Bowl | San Diego State | Washington State |
| Military Bowl | Virginia | Navy |
| Camping World Bowl | N.C. State | Oklahoma State |
| Alamo Bowl | TCU | Washington |
| Holiday Bowl | Michigan State | Stanford |
| Belk Bowl | Texas A&M | Wake Forest |
| Sun Bowl | Florida State | Arizona State |
| Music City Bowl | Kentucky | Northwestern |
| TaxSlayer Bowl | Louisville | Mississippi State |
| Liberty Bowl | Iowa State | Memphis |
| Arizona Bowl | Utah State | N.M. State |
| Outback Bowl | South Carolina | Michigan |
| Citrus Bowl | Virginia Tech | LSU |
+Accepted bowl invite
*Clinched New Year’s Six Bowl bid
Note: Buffalo, Middle Tennessee and Western Michigan also qualified for a bowl but were not selected
It’s been said that the College Football Playoff will not expand beyond its current four-team configuration anytime in the foreseeable future. This season could fracture that line of thinking to the point of breaking it.
Entering Week 14, the ACC and SEC championship games were considered playoff play-in games; No. 1 Clemson destroyed No. 7 Miami while No. 6 Georgia exacted revenge on No. 2 Auburn. No.3 Oklahoma blistered No. 11 TCU in the Big 12 championship game to guarantee another spot.
With those results, that left three of the four CFP spots claimed. The fourth, given those outcomes, seemingly came down to idle No. 5 Alabama and No. 8 Ohio State.
With 11-1 ‘Bama sitting this weekend out, 11-2 OSU took on No. 4 and previously unbeaten Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game and came away with a 27-21 win. Given how this weekend played out, and with apologies to USC, the final playoff berth will indeed come down to a Midwest blueblood and one from the South.
So, let’s go to the Tale of the Tape:
ALABAMA
— six wins over bowl-eligible teams
— two wins over CFP Top 25 teams: No. 17 LSU, No. 23 Mississippi State
— one win over FCS team
OHIO STATE
— seven wins over bowl-eligible teams
— three wins over CFP Top 25 teams: No. 4 Wisconsin, No. 9 Penn State, No. 16 Michigan State
— no games against FCS teams
LOSSES
— Alabama, one, 26-14 to No. 2 Auburn
— Ohio State, two, 31-16 at home to No. 3 Oklahoma and 55-24 on the road to 7-5 Iowa
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS
— Alabama, none
— Ohio State, one
The reality is we’re in for a new reality, regardless of what happens Sunday afternoon.
Because it’s the only league in the FBS without a conference championship game, the Sun Belt will have co-champions in back-to-back seasons.
Heading into Week 14, Appalachian State, Arkansas State and Troy were all tied atop the conference standings at 6-1 in league play. Appalachian State was set to host Louisiana in the early game, with the other two first-place teams squaring off in the late game.
Appalachian State ensured quite quickly that there would be no solo champion this season as ASU took the Team Formerly Known as Louisiana-Lafayette to the woodshed in a 63-14 win. The Mountaineers pounded out the victory mainly on the ground, rushing for 357 yards and five touchdowns. Quarterback Taylor Lamb did toss four touchdown passes — and ran for one of the five — as part of the title-winning performance.
This marks ASU’s second SBC championship, shared or otherwise, since they joined the conference in 2014. They did, though, have 18 conference crowns as an FCS power.
In the later game, Troy outscored Arkansas State 25-15 in the second half to come away with a wild 32-25 win. The most remarkable aspect of the win? The Trojans were outgained 606-293 on offense.
Despite that, Troy claimed its sixth title in SBC history. It’s also its first since 2010, which marked the end of its run of five straight championships.
This marks the eighth time since 2001 that there has been SBC co-champions in football.
It’s been a bit, but Boise State is back on top of the Mountain West.
In a back-and-forth, low-scoring game that featured four lead changes, it was Boise that was on the favorable end of the last one as they topped No. 25 Fresno State 17-14 to claim the Mountain West Conference championship. The Bulldogs held a 14-10 halftime lead, but a scoreless second half was broken up by Ryan Wolpin‘s two-yard touchdown run with 4:42 left in the fourth quarter and proved to be the game-winner for the Broncos.
With the win, Boise State claimed its second win in an MWC championship game that was first played in 2013. Its first? A 28-14 win in 2014 over… Fresno State. It also marks the Broncos’ third title overall as an MWC member.
Fresno State was looking for its first title-game win since the inaugural one.
On a note unrelated to this game in particular but of particular interest nationally: Alabama, which was shut out of the SEC championship game and beat Fresno State earlier this season, needed for Fresno to beat Boise to help ‘Bama with its College Football Playoff résumé. With Ohio State’s win in the Big Ten championship game, and with Fresno State’s loss… it’s going to make for a very interesting Selection Sunday for the playoff selection committee.
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