Week 16 in most fantasy football leagues is it. The final. For all the marbles.
The championship.
Saturday afternoon will get it all started with the Indianapolis Colts on the road against the Baltimore Ravens.
There was no Thursday Night Football this week, so we'll not only have Colts/Ravens, but we'll also have a night game as well—the Minnesota Vikings at the Green Bay Packers.
That's two games with teams that have real playoff implications for real football. But heck, we don't care about that here. We. Want. Fantasy. Points!
Below we'll look at some rankings as well as go over some advice on flex players and for points-per-reception leagues.
Do you feel those butterflies in your tummy?
It's now or never—good luck, boys and girls.
Quarterback
1. Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) at Dallas Cowboys
2. Tom Brady (New England Patriots) vs. Buffalo Bills
3. Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
4. Drew Brees (New Orleans Saints) vs. Atlanta Falcons
5. Philip Rivers (Los Angeles Chargers) at New York Jets
6. Case Keenum (Minnesota Vikings) at Green Bay Packers
7. Ben Roethlisberger (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Houston Texans
8. Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions) at Cincinnati Bengals
9. Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Seattle Seahawks
10. Alex Smith (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Miami Dolphins
Case Keenum has been one of the many waiver-wire heroes in a year when the majority of the top talents around the NFL have had a lost season.
Heck, Keenum wasn't even the Vikings starter at the beginning of the season, and look where he is now—the QB6 in Week 16.
Although it's on the road, Keenum will go up against a secondary that has had trouble for most of the season halting opposing team's aerial attacks.
Not only do the Packers give up the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, but there are a few other categories they struggle in.
Opposing passing yards per game? 256.
Opposing touchdowns per game? Approximately two.
Opposing yards per attempt? Nearly eight.
All of these equate to one conclusion: Keenum may even be underrated here when you consider the kind of offensive talent he has around him.
Keenum is close to a must-start this week if you know what's good for you.
Running Back
1. Le'Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Houston Texans
2. Todd Gurley (Los Angeles Rams) at Tennessee Titans
3. Ezekiel Elliott (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Seattle Seahawks
4. Leonard Fournette (Jacksonville Jaguars) at San Francisco 49ers
5. Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints) vs. Atlanta Falcons
6. LeSean McCoy (Buffalo Bills) at New England Patriots
7. Melvin Gordon (Los Angeles Chargers) at New York Jets
8. Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints) vs. Atlanta Falcons
9. Devonta Freeman (Atlanta Falcons) at New Orleans Saints
10. Jordan Howard (Chicago Bears) vs. Cleveland Browns
11. Kareem Hunt (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Miami Dolphins
12. Kenyan Drake (Miami Dolphins) at Kansas City Chiefs
13. Christian McCaffrey (Carolina Panthers) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
14. Alex Collins (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Indianapolis Colts
15. Jerick McKinnon (Minnesota Vikings) at Green Bay Packers
16. Dion Lewis (New England Patriots) vs. Buffalo Bills
17. C.J. Anderson (Denver Broncos) at Washington Redskins
18. Jay Ajayi (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Oakland Raiders
19. Lamar Miller (Houston Texans) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
20. Carlos Hyde (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
21. Marshawn Lynch (Oakland Raiders) at Philadelphia Eagles
22. Latavius Murray (Minnesota Vikings) at Green Bay Packers
23. DeMarco Murray (Tennessee Titans) vs. Los Angeles Rams
24. Jonathan Stewart (Carolina Panthers) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
25. Derrick Henry (Tennessee Titans) vs. Los Angeles Rams
This week we'll be witnessing firsthand "Dallas Cowboys, Episode 16: Return of the Zeke."
If you're in the championship and are able to play the Ezekiel Elliott card this week, you had a well-built team and most likely a lot of luck.
With that said, you're not only getting back a former starting running back on your fantasy team, but a top guy at that.
The Seahawks are not as intimidating as they have been, and Elliott is as fresh as ever after spending lots of time in Cabo training and getting in shape.
A suspension for Elliott is only going to prove to be detrimental to the Seahawks—good luck stopping him.
RB Flex Advice
He's not in the rankings above, but if you're in need of a running back flex play, look to Kerwynn Williams of the Arizona Cardinals.
Getting the full workload over the past three weeks with Adrian Peterson out, Williams is "the guy" with AP on injured reserve.
Although he doesn't play a role in the passing game, Williams has averaged 18 touches per game in the last three weeks.
Considering he's had just one catch over that time, he's basically getting 18 carries per game.
The Cardinals are hosting the Giants this week, who rank 24th in defense value-adjusted over average against the run and give up over 4.3 yards per carry.
This feels like a good spot for Williams to perhaps also reach the end zone for the first time since Week 1.
If you're in need and Williams is out there or on your bench, he's a solid bet.
RB PPR Advice
It may be cliche to talk about Browns running back Duke Johnson in this section, but if it ain't broke, don't fix it, right?
Going up against the Bears in Week 16, quarterback DeShone Kizer will have a harder task than you'd think as the Bears rank 14th in DVOA against the pass. Yes, they also rank inside the top 10 against pass-catching running backs, but this game has a slightly different twist to it than most of the Bears opponents.
For one, there are few scenarios where the Browns should have a lead in this game. The Bears offense isn't exactly the Greatest Show on Turf, but their defense will be able to keep Kizer in check.
You know this by now, but let me reiterate: The Browns will go to Johnson as a dump-off option when they're down.
Josh Gordon is back in the mix, but he's averaging five targets per game and just over six carries per game over the last month.
That equates to over 11 looks/opportunities per game with nearly half coming in the form of catches.
If you're in a PPR league, Johnson is a low-end RB2 or a flex option, but a PPR staple for running backs nonetheless.
Don't overthink this!
Wide Receiver
1. Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers) at New York Jets
2. Adam Thielen (Minnesota Vikings) at Green Bay Packers
3. Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) vs. Atlanta Falcons
4. A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Detroit Lions
5. JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Houston Texans
6. Brandin Cooks (New England Patriots) vs. Buffalo Bills
7. DeAndre Hopkins (Houston Texans) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
8. Doug Baldwin (Seattle Seahawks) at Dallas Cowboys
9. Larry Fitzgerald (Arizona Cardinals) vs. New York Giants
10. Alshon Jeffery (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Oakland Raiders
11. Julio Jones (Atlanta Falcons) at New Orleans Saints
12. Tyreek Hill (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Miami Dolphins
13. Jarvis Landry (Miami Dolphins) at Kansas City Chiefs
14. Dez Bryant (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Seattle Seahawks
15. Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams) at Tennessee Titans
16. Josh Gordon (Cleveland Browns) at Chicago Bears
17. Michael Crabtree (Oakland Raiders) at Philadelphia Eagles
18. Sterling Shepard (New York Giants) at Arizona Cardinals
19. Mike Evans (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at Carolina Panthers
20. Demaryius Thomas (Denver Broncos) at Washington Redskins
21. Stefon Diggs (Minnesota Vikings) at Green Bay Packers
22. Mike Wallace (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Indianapolis Colts
23. Marvin Jones (Detroit Lions) at Cincinnati Bengals
24. Dede Westbrook (Jacksonville Jaguars) at San Francisco 49ers
25. T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) at Baltimore Ravens
With Antonio Brown out with an injured calf, it's time for JuJu Smith-Schuster to shine. In Week 15, the rookie had six receptions for 114 yards in a game Brown left early.
Since Week 8, he has averaged over seven targets per game. Even with AB in the lineup, he's getting plenty of action.
It's simple math, especially going up against the Texans, who rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass.
He's top-five for a reason.
WR Flex Advice
Although he's facing off against the Jaguars, 49ers wide receiver Marquise Goodwin is the No. 1 guy for quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
Over the last two weeks, Goodwin has seen 12 and 13 targets, respectively.
Even against the Jaguars, eventually volume will win out. If Goodwin sees a similar amount of targets, he should be able to do something productive.
No, he's not in the top 25, but that's because this is a tough matchup and there is volatility, making him a perfect flex play.
There's risk here, but there is with most flex plays.
Give Goodwin a go. With his skill set, he really only needs one big play to make him worth starting.
WR PPR Advice
Sticking with the same game, we'll look at the Jags here and Dede Westbrook.
Fellow wide receivers Jaydon Mickens and Keelan Cole shined in Week 15, but Westbrook has been the go-to target recently.
Removing Week 15, Westbrook has averaged over eight targets per game with nearly a 60 percent catch rate. Not only that, but he's averaging nearly 12 yards per reception.
The touchdown number is low at just one, but on the other hand, he's only played in five games in his rookie season.
Looking at those averages and keeping in mind his opponent being the 49ers, Westbrook is looking at another double-digit PPR performance this week unless Mickens and Cole explode again.
Tight End
1. Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots) vs. Buffalo Bills
2. Zach Ertz (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Oakland Raiders
3. Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Miami Dolphins
4. Evan Engram (New York Giants) at Arizona Cardinals
5. Delanie Walker (Tennessee Titans) vs. Los Angeles Rams
6. Greg Olsen (Carolina Panthers) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Jack Doyle (Indianapolis Colts) at Baltimore Ravens
8. Jimmy Graham (Seattle Seahawks) at Dallas Cowboys
9. Kyle Rudolph (Minnesota Vikings) at Green Bay Packers
10. Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Seattle Seahawks
11. Jared Cook (Oakland Raiders) at Philadelphia Eagles
12. Eric Ebron (Detroit Lions) at Cincinnati Bengals
13. Benjamin Watson (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Indianapolis Colts
14. Cameron Brate (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) at Carolina Panthers
15. Ricky Seals-Jones (Arizona Cardinals) vs. New York Giants
Atop the tight end rankings, Travis Kelce has the best matchup at home against the Dolphins, who rank 28th in DVOA against tight ends.
But honestly, the first four or five players in these rankings are all standouts this week.
Gronk is Gronk.
Ertz is basically the No. 1 option on the Eagles, and the same goes for Engram and the Giants.
These first four guys have been in different orders in rankings throughout the season, but they've never fallen below those rankings.
TE Flex Advice
When we look back at 2017, one thing we'll remember is how bad the Giants were against tight ends.
They give up the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends and nearly a touchdown per game.
Is there anything else you need to know?
Ricky Seals-Jones and quarterback Blaine Gabbert have been on the same page recently, so don't expect them to slow down anytime soon.
TE PPR Advice
Without wide receiver Jeremy Maclin, the Baltimore Ravens receiving corps is even more depleted.
They weren't solid there to begin with, but now it's even worse.
It's time for someone to step up.
Wide receiver Breshad Perriman? Nah, no. What about some of the younger guys? Maybe, but not sure.
Oh, I know! Tight end Benjamin Watson.
And hey, it works perfectly—the Colts rank 28th in DVOA against tight ends and give up around four receptions per game to the position.
The caveat here is that Watson could realistically be No. 1 or 2 in the pecking order for quarterback Joe Flacco.
That changes things. Expect a high amount of targets Watson's way in Week 16.
Kicker
1. Stephen Gostkowski (New England Patriots) vs. Buffalo Bills
2. Justin Tucker (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Indianapolis Colts
3. Jake Elliott (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Oakland Raiders
4. Wil Lutz (New Orleans Saints) vs. Atlanta Falcons
5. Chris Boswell (Pittsburgh Steelers) at Houston Texans
6. Harrison Butker (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Miami Dolphins
7. Matt Bryant (Atlanta Falcons) at New Orleans Saints
8. Graham Gano (Carolina Panthers) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
9. Matt Prater (Detroit Lions) at Cincinnati Bengals
10. Josh Lambo (Jacksonville Jaguars) at San Francisco 49ers
Sticking with the Ravens, Justin Tucker should have plenty of opportunities to score in Week 16. Whether it's extra points or long field goals, the Ravens should be in position to score on the Colts often enough.
Defense/Special Teams
1. Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts
2. Jacksonville Jaguars at San Francisco 49ers
3. Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
4. Los Angeles Chargers at New York Jets
5. Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Chicago Bears vs. Cleveland Browns
7. Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins
8. Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
9. Arizona Cardinals vs. New York Giants
10. Los Angeles Rams at Tennessee Titans
Statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders and Pro Football Reference.
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