The NFL's Week 12 action almost finished in boring fashion—but boring isn't always a bad thing for those who like to put everything on the line in the picks department.
Said finisher was the Baltimore Ravens taking care of business against the Houston Texans on Monday Night Football just as oddsmakers said they would. It was the story of the entire week, really, with no major upsets to speak of outside of the Jacksonville Jaguars going down.
Week 13 looks like another slate favoring those who like a conservative approach to both picking games outright and looking at spreads. The playoffs race is convoluted in both conferences, but a limited number of divisional games make for simple picks.
Here's a look at early-week spreads for the whole schedule and projections for each matchup.
NFL Week 13 Schedule, Odds
Washington at Dallas (-2.5) | O/U 44
Denver at Miami (E) | O/U 38
Detroit at Baltimore (-3) | O/U
Houston at Tennessee (-7) | O/U
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (-8.5) | O/U 40.5
Kansas City (-4.5) at N.Y. Jets | O/U 43.5
Minnesota at Atlanta (-2.5) | O/U 47
New England (-8.5) at Buffalo | O/U 49
San Francisco at Chicago (-4.5) | O/U 39
Tampa Bay at Green Bay (E) | O/U
Cleveland at L.A. Chargers (-13) | O/U 42.5
Carolina at New Orleans (-4) | O/U 48
L.A. Rams (-6) at Arizona | O/U 45.5
N.Y. Giants at Oakland (-8.5) | O/U 41.5
Philadelphia (-5.5) at Seattle | O/U 48
Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Cincinnati | O/U 43
San Francisco at Chicago (-4.5)
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It'd be best if bettors don't side with the Chicago Bears again the rest of the season.
The Bears have devolved into one of the hottest messes in the NFL lately. They're 3-8 but were playing much better than their record for a while there, thanks to a boost from rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. But he's slowed, and injuries keep claiming stars like Leonard Floyd.
After a 31-3 whipping at the hands of the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12, the outlook from the organization got even worse, as a note by Adam Hoge of WGN Radio hinted:
Adam Hoge@AdamHogeThings are tense today at Halas Hall. A loud argument between players just erupted in the hallway adjacent to the media room. Hard to tell exactly who was involved. #Bears
2017-11-27 20:48:23
It's a bad enough outlook that bettors shouldn't mind siding with the one-win San Francisco 49ers in this matchup. Not only are the 49ers 1-1 over their last two, Jimmy Garoppolo entered a Week 12 loss and threw a late touchdown on all of two attempts.
Should the 49ers roll with their new quarterback, the energy and downright production from his presence under center is something capable of pushing a bad team to a win. The offense is still running the ball well at 4.3 yards per clip despite everything else, meaning better production under center can help the team compensate for a struggling defense.
It's telling Las Vegas has the line hardly in favor of the hosts. Those looking for a mild upset should look at the 49ers and an energized, ball-control offense against a struggling team.
Prediction: 49ers 24, Bears 17
N.Y. Giants at Oakland (-8.5)
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The question here isn't so much if the Oakland Raiders will beat the New York Giants, but by how much.
Questions swirl around the hosts, of course, now that wideout Michael Crabtree is suspended for two games for a fight, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network. And according to ESPN's Adam Schefter, wideout Amari Cooper is in concussion protocol while dealing with a sprained ankle.
That sounds bad, but amid all the chaos, the Raiders beat the Denver Broncos 21-14 in Week 12 to keep playoff hopes alive, and Derek Carr threw for two touchdowns on an efficient day. Cordarrelle Patterson stepped up to lead the team in receiving and guys like Johnny Holton are interesting depth pieces who are capable of big games against bad teams.
Which the Giants are. Now 2-9, the Giants last won in Week 11, an overtime upset against one of the league's most confusing teams, the Kansas City Chiefs. More apt for analysis is the Week 12 loss to the Washington Redskins, a 20-10 road stinker in which the Eli Manning-led offense gained all of 170 total yards.
When an entire offense is gaining fewer yards than an upcoming opponent's quarterback threw for the week prior, the outlook classifies as bleak. Manning has zero running game behind him, a stunning lack of receiving targets and has thrown for more than 300 yards in a game once this year.
Oakland, only allowing 23.7 points per game as it is, gets a serious break from those in charge of the schedule here, as suspensions and injuries shouldn't stop the Carr-led offense from rolling at home against a hobbled team that threw the towel in on the season after one month of play.
Prediction: Raiders 30, Giants 17
Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Cincinnati
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Monday Night Football should be another timid, predictable affair for bettors.
The Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers in an AFC North showdown with playoff implications, as the 5-6 Bengals look to keep the long-shot dream alive and the Steelers look to pick up their 10th win of the season.
The gap between the two teams is as wide as their records. Pittsburgh has had a few hiccups this year, but Ben Roethlisberger has helped rattle off six wins in a row. Andy Dalton and the Bengals, on the other hand, have two wins against the winless Cleveland Browns to inflate the record and haven't beaten another team by more than four points—and only one team they've beat has a winning record.
The Steelers are rolling so well compared to a rival like the Bengals they're already looking ahead to a game against the New England Patriots.
"We've got a good football team," Steelers head coach Tomlin said, according to the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "I've got a great deal of confidence in them. Everybody in America knows it's a big game. We couldn't deny it if we wanted to."
Normally this would sound like something the Bengals could exploit. But the team's miserable rushing attack (3.2 yards per carry) behind a deconstructed offensive line thanks to an offseason of losses only looks good against the Browns, and no receiving option has stepped up after A.J. Green.
There's a certain dominance favoring the Steelers in this rivalry, too. They met back in Week 7, where the Steelers cruised 29-14, gaining 420 yards to Cincinnati's 179. Bettors can expect a similar ball-control dominance here, hence oddsmakers swinging so far away from the Bengals at the opening line.
Prediction: Steelers 27, Bengals 20
Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Odds according to OddsShark.
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