The scenarios for the nine teams with a legitimate shot at the Playoff

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The road to the College Football Playoff is complete. Well, almost. At least we’ve reached the point of the regular season where a light has appeared at the end of the tunnel.

A weekend unlike nearly any that has come before is upon us: For just the second time in history, a Saturday will feature four matchups between teams ranked in the top 10 of The Associated Press poll.

For the final time this year, let’s break down the postseason path for the nine legitimate contenders for the four-team Playoff field. For some, it’s easy — just win. Others need wins and help, while one in particular will be watching the proceedings from the couch.

Clemson

Clemson has it pretty easy. The Tigers, ranked first in the penultimate Playoff rankings, are locked into the field with a win against Miami and likely as the top seed. But there are other avenues to the Playoff. Clemson could lose to the Hurricanes and still be in competition with Alabama for the fourth seed. With a Wisconsin loss, the Tigers would vie with the Tide and Ohio State for a Playoff berth. Even at 11-2, Clemson is a legitimate contender.

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Auburn

Auburn’s only road is with a win against Georgia in the SEC championship. After handling the Bulldogs at home earlier in November, the Tigers are expected to do so again in Atlanta. But there’s no backup plan: Auburn is in with a win but would slide into an at-large bid to a New Year’s Six bowl with a loss. It would be a different story had the Tigers not choked up a second-half lead in their loss to LSU in October.

Oklahoma

The Sooners would book a trip to the Sugar Bowl by winning the rematch with TCU to claim the Big 12 title. They even have an ace card: the regular-season win against Ohio State. It’s a major asset, since even with a loss and an OSU win both teams would be sitting at two losses — and Oklahoma would have the head-to-head advantage. On the other hand, Ohio State would be able to tout a conference title. That might lead to Alabama getting into the field, but it also means Oklahoma isn’t automatically eliminated with a loss to the Horned Frogs.

Wisconsin

A win against Ohio State would maintain Wisconsin’s unbeaten record and perhaps even push the Badgers up a spot or two from No. 4. But because of its weak strength of schedule, Wisconsin would not be considered for the top four with a loss to the Buckeyes. The Badgers would reach a second New Year’s Six bowl in a row, however.

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Alabama

OK, so here’s where it will get controversial. Like every team currently on the outside looking in, Alabama has no shot if the top four hold serve. But only one needs to lose to give the Tide a shot. The preference would be Oklahoma, since an Oklahoma loss would hurt Ohio State and give the Crimson Tide an edge in the eyes of the selection committee. But all bets are off if Oklahoma wins and the Buckeyes land an impressive win against the Badgers. Though Alabama would cry foul, Ohio State might have a stronger case for the fourth seed.

Georgia

Let’s keep this one simple: Georgia is in with a win against Auburn. The only question might be seeding. No. 6 in the latest rankings, the Bulldogs would have a case for a No. 2 seed and a spot in the Rose Bowl, should Clemson top Miami. But wins by Miami and Oklahoma might land OU in the top spot, sending the Sooners to the Rose Bowl and allowing Georgia to hang in its relative backyard — New Orleans isn’t next door to Atlanta, but it’s in the geographic footprint — for the Sugar Bowl.

Miami (Fla.)

Like Georgia, Miami is locked into the Playoff with a win against Clemson but destined for a January bowl with a loss. While the consensus is that Clemson will win, don’t ignore Miami’s ability to get up for the premier opponents on its schedule — as seen in those impressive wins against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame. While beating Pittsburgh last week would’ve left some wiggle room, there’s no scenario where the Hurricanes get in with a loss to the Tigers.

Ohio State

Win and hope for some chaos. But not just win: Ohio State needs to roll Wisconsin, much as it did to secure a top-four finish in 2014. While they haven’t budged much in the Playoff poll since falling to Iowa, look for the Buckeyes to take a major leap by topping the Badgers, especially with a Clemson win. That would eliminate three teams currently ranked higher: Miami, Wisconsin and the loser of the SEC title game.

And that would lead to the head-to-head comparison with Alabama. The Tide will have their supporters, as well as just one loss to Ohio State’s two. But the Buckeyes would have a major-conference title and three wins against teams ranked in the top 16 of this week’s Playoff rankings, two coming against teams in the top 10. Alabama’s best win comes against LSU, currently No. 17.

Southern California

The odds aren’t good, but the Trojans have a shot. Here’s how it’s done: USC beats Stanford to win the Pac-12, Clemson beats Miami, TCU tops Oklahoma, Auburn wins the rematch with Georgia and Ohio State beats Wisconsin. That would lock in Clemson and Auburn, leaving two spots from the group of the Sooners, Ohio State, Alabama and USC. There’d be an argument, but let’s say Ohio State gets in at No. 3 due to the Big Ten title.

Even if the Sooners’ title-game loss puts them in trouble, it would be hard for the committee to leave out the Tide. But the Trojans would tout a conference title, two wins against Stanford and eight wins in total against bowl teams. In comparison, Alabama would have at least two and maybe three wins against teams currently in the Playoff top 25 — hinging on whether Fresno State tops Boise State in the Mountain West title game — and seven wins in total against bowl-eligible competition. Again, the Trojans would have a shot.

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