No matter what the order is for the College Football Playoff, there will be at least three teams that will feel slighted by the committee for not getting a Top Four ranking.
Auburn, Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Miami and Wisconsin are all deserving of a spot in the CFP. But sadly, only four teams will reach the semi finals, leaving next week's conference title games all the more important.
But even with a conference championship on a team's resume, that doesn't necessarily mean that said team will be given a spot in the CFP. Just because Alabama lost to Auburn Saturday and won't play in the SEC Championship Game doesn't mean it doesn't have a legitimate shot at making the CFP, right?
Before we get into some CFP projections, keep in mind the dust has barely settled on an incredible last weekend of the regular season.
Some teams will be insulted, but that's the nature of the beast. The argument can be made that the undefeated UCF Knights' resume is just as impressive as Alabama's. Alas, UCF has no shot at getting into one of the top four spots despite how good it has looked this season for reasons that are above my pay grade.
David Ubben@davidubbenIf Bama loses this game and UCF beats Memphis next week, the Knights and Crimson Tide would finish the season with the same number of top 25 wins (2).
2017-11-25 23:28:26
Let's just make the CFP an eight- or 10-team elimination format. How about that?
But enough of this. Let's get to it. Here are some CFP projections following Saturday's action of college football.
Updated College Football Playoff Rankings
1. Auburn
2. Oklahoma
3. Georgia
4. Clemson
Analysis
Yeah, that's right. No Alabama, no Miami and no Wisconsin—not yet, anyway.
Alabama's strength of schedule is weak. There's nothing anyone can say or do that will change that.
The Crimson Tide lost their biggest game of the season to Auburn, so they fall out whether you like it or not. It's possible that regardless of how these conference title games play out, the committee could still vote Alabama in because, well, it's Alabama.
And as wrong as that is, it's possible.
But in reality, the Crimson Tide don't have the wins over top opponents that other teams in the hunt for a national championship have, and they shouldn't be in the CFP unless TCU beats Oklahoma, Clemson beats Miami, Auburn beats Georgia and Ohio State beats Wisconsin.
It's an unpopular opinion, but which team has Alabama beat that makes it so worthy of being in the CFP? Mississippi State? A three-loss LSU team? Beating Mercer 56-0 does nothing for a team's resume this late in the season.
Sorry, Alabama fans. Cupcake victories mean nothing when it comes to the CFP.
But let's stay with the SEC for a minute because Auburn is making some serious noise.
Auburn Football@AuburnFootball“We’re going to the @SEC Championship.” #WarEagle https://t.co/zJojKHvoXa
2017-11-26 02:51:57
Despite having two losses on the season, Auburn has been fantastic in the past couple months, racking up wins over then-No. 1 Georgia and then-No. 1 Alabama in November alone.
Sure, the Tigers lost to Clemson. But that was at the beginning of the season, when Auburn wasn't playing to its potential.
This is now, and this is how it should be.
Winning the SEC title would just be another notch on the belt for the Tigers, who would then have one of the more impressive resumes in the nation, even more so than a one-loss team like the Sooners.
Oklahoma could arguably be the No. 1 team in these projections but is just behind Auburn as the best team in college football.
A big test awaits them against TCU, but if the Sooners can overcome the Horned Frogs, they are worthy of a spot in the CFP.
As for Georgia, it is a curious case. The Bulldogs' only loss on the season came in a blowout against Auburn, but if the Tigers are No. 1, then shouldn't Georgia be given a little leeway instead of being pushed out of the playoff conversation?
The Bulldogs looked impressive against Georgia Tech Saturday and will look for revenge against the Tigers in the SEC Championship Game. A win over Auburn all but guarantees their spot in the CFP and maybe even a No. 1 overall ranking.
But a second loss to Auburn? That could knock them out completely and make room for one of the many teams waiting for someone to slip up. And Clemson could be one of those teams.
Clemson's loss to Syracuse in October was bad. Really bad. And it will still haunt the team going into Selection Sunday.
However, a win over Miami in the ACC Championship Game solidifies the Tigers' spot in the CFP. A loss? They get pushed out. It's that simple.
Speaking of Miami, it needs help in the biggest way.
Not only do the Hurricanes have to beat Clemson, but they also need other teams to lose. If TCU beats Oklahoma and Ohio State beats Wisconsin, it's possible Miami gets a spot in the Final Four.
But does a late-season loss to Pittsburgh matter to the committee? Absolutely. And it's nearly impossible to predict how much that loss will weigh on Miami until it's too late.
Late-season losses aren't good for any team, but perhaps no team has more riding on one game than Wisconsin.
An undefeated record against mediocre to above-average competition isn't enough to put them into the CFP.
But a Big Ten title victory over Ohio State? The committee would have no choice but to give Wisconsin a Top Four spot.
The reality of the CFP is none of us know how things are going to play out.
Even after all the conference title games are played, there will still be questions left unanswered. We all remember how bizarre it was to see Ohio State in the CFP last season, so who is to say we won't get another shocker this time around?
Until the playoffs are expanded to a larger format, a lot of good football teams will be left out in the cold. But this season might have the deepest crop of worthy teams since the CFP's inception, which is what makes figuring this all out so difficult.
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